Investing.com – The US greenback has been in demand this week, with the current streak of buck weak spot operating out of steam. Nevertheless, UBS cautions towards going lengthy the greenback going ahead.
At 08:05 ET (12:05 GMT), the Greenback Index, which tracks the dollar towards a basket of six different currencies, traded 0.1% decrease to 101.642, simply off the earlier session’s six-week excessive.
The index is up almost 1.5%, for the week, its strongest such efficiency since April.
“The US greenback has regained a little bit of misplaced territory this week on the again of a number of elements: Geopolitical dangers led to a flight to security, a number of the US labor market knowledge main as much as the all-important nonfarm payrolls and unemployment report have been a contact higher, and lower-than-expected European inflation have led markets to anticipate a 25bps European Central Financial institution minimize in October,” analysts at UBS mentioned in a notice, dated Oct. 3.
“If this undershooting development extends to the US, the September inflation print might come very near 2%.”
The Swiss financial institution says this isn’t its base case, nevertheless it can’t rule it out.
With blended labor market knowledge muddying the image in current months, we expect a stronger drop in inflation might open the door to a different 50bp fee minimize from the Federal Reserve in November, UBS mentioned.
“We proceed to see broad greenback weak spot over coming months and advise purchasers to make use of the present interval of USD-strength to scale back publicity,” the Swiss financial institution mentioned. “With this view in thoughts, the DXY ought to finally fall beneath 100.”