JP Morgan “estimate oil costs might surge to the $120-130/bbl” (Iran worst-case situation)

JPMorgan in a notice issued Thursday (US time)

• stored its base case oil forecast unchanged, anticipating costs to remain within the low-to-mid $60s per barrel via 2025 and round $60 in 2026
• it warned nonetheless that beneath excessive geopolitical eventualities—notably involving Iran—costs might double, doubtlessly hitting $120–130 per barrel

This comes amid heightened tensions within the Center East:

• Trump mentioned the U.S. is relocating personnel resulting from rising dangers within the area and reaffirmed that Iran wouldn’t be allowed to acquire a nuclear weapon
• Iran continues to insists its nuclear program is peaceable

JPMorgan famous that present oil costs, hovering close to $69 for Brent, already embrace a geopolitical threat premium of about $4 above their estimated truthful worth of $66. A worst-case situation, comparable to a closure of the Strait of Hormuz or main retaliatory assaults, might considerably disrupt provide, notably if Iran’s 2.1 million barrels per day in exports are impacted.

Including to the strain, Iran’s defence minister warned of assaults on U.S. bases if nuclear talks collapse.

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Brent replace: