Arthur Hayes thinks Zcash can transfer an order of magnitude quicker than most buyers anticipate—and he spelled out why in a Coin Bureau interview launched on November 3.
The previous BitMEX CEO ties the brand new Zcash bull case to a three-part story that mixes technical maturation, seen shifts in on-chain habits, and a looming provide inflection. “I feel that 10% to twenty% of the worth of Bitcoin fairly rapidly is one thing that Zcash may obtain,” he mentioned—an estimate that, at present Bitcoin costs, interprets to roughly $10,000–$20,000 per ZEC.
Why Zcash Might Skyrocket To $10,000-$20,000
For Hayes, the expertise is now not the 2016 experiment that divided the market over ceremony theater and cryptographic belief. He recounted being “deep into Zcash in 2016” when BitMEX listed a pre-genesis futures market and spot costs briefly printed round “$3,000 a coin on Poloniex” earlier than provide stuffed in.
What’s modified, he argues, is the elimination—by protocol upgrades—of the unique single greatest credibility drag. “One of many massive points with Zcash again then was this trusted setup situation… however primarily, I feel it was the Halo 2 improve just lately eliminated or perhaps a number of years in the past eliminated that trusted setup situation.” That, in his telling, reframes Zcash from a intelligent however encumbered R&D venture right into a privateness asset whose cryptography now clears the institutional sniff check.
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He {couples} that with direct user-level expertise. Hayes says he put in Zashi, Zcash’s flagship pockets, and used Close to Intents flows to defend and swap, which he likened to an industrial-strength mixer. “While you try this, it’s primarily like Twister Money on steroids,” he mentioned, emphasizing that the ensuing output asset “seems, but it surely’s not linked to another transaction.”
Prices stay a friction—“It’s positively not low cost but”—however he factors to pattern information he has reviewed exhibiting a secular rise in precise privateness utilization: “the quantity of shielded transactions is approaching I feel 30%, up from like a number of share factors after I cared about Zcash a very long time in the past.” In different phrases, the privateness function set is not only theoretically stronger; it’s getting used.
The demand narrative rests on a easy declare: within the age of on-chain forensics and AI-enabled sample recognition, true cash-like privateness is a product with differentiated utility. Hayes attracts a pointy line between pseudonymity and privateness. “I imagine in privateness cash… I feel Bitcoin being synonymous is definitely a superb factor as a result of I would like to have the ability to observe Bitcoin, however I additionally need to have web money the place there isn’t any traceability of that.”
He contrasts Zcash with Monero’s current headlines, citing stories that “the Japanese authorities had been in a position to deanonymize Monero by… linking collectively totally different disparate elements of some info.”
Shortage is the third pillar. Hayes flags the Zcash halving “arising in a number of weeks, November,” framing it because the timing catalyst that would supercharge reflexivity if investor consideration and liquidity arrive in tandem. The availability minimize is just not the whole story for him—he dismisses halving dogma in Bitcoin—however he does view a synchronous demand narrative plus a mechanical issuance drop as unusually potent for a small-float asset when a privateness bid is already rising on-chain.
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Liquidity and entry are exactly why he sees the setup as uneven. Zcash is just not broadly quotable, which is a danger and a chance. “I hit up… eight or 9 OTC brokers. Solely two brokers would quote me Zcash,” he mentioned, describing how onerous it was to accumulate dimension via conventional venues. He expects that, if the value begins to pattern, the trail will run via permissionless rails quite than regulated exchanges. “If the value rises excessive sufficient… I should purchase it on certainly one of these decentralized exchanges and that’ll be how you actually get entry… identical to how Bitcoin was again [then].”
Hayes additionally addresses the change in his personal posture, together with what catalyzed it. He credit a dinner throughout Token2049 with Naval Ravikant, who “began shilling me on Zcash,” prompting him to push previous his 2016-era objections and re-underwrite the protocol. “I purchased a number of million bucks on the spot at that time,” he mentioned, including that he stored shopping for “despite the fact that I purchased it after the 80% pump when Naval despatched out that tweet.”
Hayes believes the upside can compress into weeks quite than years. In his phrases: “I’ve purchased quite a lot of it… I’m nonetheless shopping for it. I feel that that is most likely going to be certainly one of my higher trades of the cycle.”
At press time, ZEC traded at $464.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com