Right here is my base case.
Greenland:
It is a actual pet mission of Trump’s. He is an actual property man, it is the most important island on the earth and there are solely 56,000 individuals there. Denmark is weak, there’s already a US base on the island and there are in all probability quite a lot of pure sources ready to be found. Plus, imperialism is kinda enjoyable.
Panama canal:
Some buddies in delivery have been complaining to him about the associated fee to make use of the canal and so they do not prefer it. America did construct the canal however American ships or these bringing items to America do not get any particular deal. In the meantime, it is one of many biggest monopolies in world historical past and funds all of Panama’s authorities, permitting the remainder of the nation to be an enormous tax-free cash laundering operation to fund issues just like the Trump Lodge in Panama, which was as soon as the biggest constructing in Latin America. In fact, that mission was one thing of a catastrophe (I lived there) and it was later re-named and he in all probability holds a grudge.
Canada:
It was a lame joke that he is beating to demise.
Now for the enjoyable half.
(Warning: Don’t take this severely and positively do not devise some sort of buying and selling technique primarily based on it. That is for enjoyable)
What if I am unsuitable? What if there’s some sort of technique right here?
The apparent reply is that it is a transfer to counter China. It will purpose to create some sort of schism on the earth that places the Americas (or at the very least the Caribbean and east coast of the Americas) firmly within the US sphere.
Panama Canal
I did a deep dive on China delivery, and surprisingly, blocking the Panama Canal would not be that huge of a deal. Nearly all Chinese language items to Europe and Africa circulate by way of the Suez Canal or around the Cape of Good Hope. For locations like Brazil and Argentina, circling Cape Horn can be a average delivery headache however would not materially change the economics or commerce with China. T
Two spots do stand out as more-vulnerable — Venezuela and Cuba. Each are precarious economies that will have vital bother buying and selling with China if compelled to go the great distance. Practically half of Venezuela’s oil goes to China and 50-70% of it goes by way of the canal.
If Trump actually had imperial designs, then Cuba is definitely the start line and an invasion is just not one thing you broadcast upfront however blocking its canal commerce and tightening the screws on the financial system even additional would lay the groundwork for regime change.
Greenland:
There’s some speak of tightening Arctic delivery lanes as some sort of grand-master technique however it would not make sense to me. Ships might use the Russian route as a substitute as it is not that a lot of a detour. Some individuals see some sort of international warming angle however to even get to Winnipeg, which is the coldest main metropolis on the earth, international temperatures would wish to rise 5-7 levels Celsius. In that sort of situation, you’d have a complete breakdown in just about all the pieces.
I’ve to assume it is extra about exploiting sources which might be there, or could be there. It will improve US landmass by 23% and the financial prices can be low. I imply, even when you bribed each particular person in Greenland with $1 million, that will solely be $56 billion. Examine that to the $200 billion already spent by the US in Ukraine or the $953 billion within the rip-off generally known as the Paycheck Safety Program.
On condition that tech bros have additionally taken over the Republican Social gathering, it could be seen as a check case for the way efficient they will run algos. If you happen to can manipulate an election, why not attempt to manipulate a rustic into becoming a member of america?
If that works, then Greenland would simply be the check case for…
Canada
For example that Elon and the tech bros tweak the algo and Greenlanders be a part of the US willingly. There will not be bribes however the US cash will circulate in and Greenlanders would have the choice of shifting to america.
Not solely would it not obtain its objectives for Greenland, however it might turn out to be an incredible propaganda instrument, a minnow on the fish hook that will be used to catch the whale — Canada.
There’s the kernel of a plan there and Trump already hinted at the remainder of it, saying he would use ‘financial power’ to persuade Canada to hitch. The US can wreck nearly any international financial system with the wave of a pen and Canada is extremely weak. The overwhelming majority if the financial system is directed to the US, with no options. The oil pipelines from Canada nearly all go in a single route, and even some vital Canadian pipelines for home use take a short-cut by way of the USA.
Now Canada can also be the USA’s greatest export market so it might ship main ache to the US as nicely but when the US have been to steadily undermine Canada’s financial system by way of commerce and different under-handed strategies, whereas leveraging social media, it might have an opportunity. Drive the loonie to sub-50 cents and provide to merge at par and supply free motion right into a better-paying financial system and that is a compelling provide.
To be sincere, I feel the main drawback with it’s the Republican aspect, as a result of when you have been to offer Canada the proportionate Home, Senate and electoral school votes, the US election outcomes can be very totally different. However Canada is insanely wealthy in useful resource wealth and in some sort of robot-dominated, no immigration world, you can run a formidable closed financial system.
Simply please god do not let this clown anyplace close to any sort of negotiation:
Kevin O’Leary
