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Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish bias on USD/JPY over the coming weeks.
- “JPY took another hard round-trip on Friday after another apparent large-scale intervention. Japan’s current policy mix is clearly unsustainable; it is intervening in both the fixed income and foreign exchange markets, firmly entrenched in the classic “open-economy trilemma,” as our economists explained this week. But, while ultimately unsustainable, it is “working” to some degree,” GS notes.
- “The Dollar is currently on a broad appreciation trend of historic proportions, which we think could last a little while longer. So it may not be unreasonable for Japan’s policymakers to use the resources at its disposal to try to buy time and limit the speed of JPY depreciation as much as possible. In the meantime, in a macro backdrop of more Fed hikes, higher global rates (ex-Japan), and our economists’ forecast of a relatively soft landing, the trend in USD/JPY should still be higher,” GS adds.
Buying time is right, its probably the best the BOJ can hope for right now.
