Gold and Silver: Imply reversion and Statistical significance

After the latest drops I ran MC simulations on gold (GC=F) and silver (SI=F) futures after latest drops. Each hit what appears like statistical extremes over 90 days:

Gold: Presently at -4.seventh percentile (began $5318, now $4745) Silver: Presently at -2.2th percentile (began $114, now $78)

However I'm second-guessing whether or not the identical framework applies to commodities futures:

Fairness logic: High quality shares mean-revert as a result of earnings/fundamentals anchor worth. A -7% drop on strong fundamentals = alternative.
Commodity logic: No earnings, no money flows, simply provide/demand/sentiment. Does "statistical excessive" imply the identical factor?

Particular issues:
Contango/backwardation – Futures time period construction issues, MC simulation ignores this fully
Imply reversion assumption – Equities revert to elementary worth. What do commodities revert to? Storage prices? Marginal manufacturing value?

Volatility clustering – Each displaying 17-38% annualized vol. Is historic vol even related for commodities or does regime change sooner?

No "fundamentals" to test – With shares I confirm earnings/steerage. With gold/silver… test what? Greenback energy? Actual charges? That's macro, not elementary.

Nonetheless new to futures and questioning if I can nonetheless apply the identical toolset I’ve been utilizing on equities.

The query:
Does Monte Carlo percentile evaluation on commodities futures simply inform me "worth moved loads" with out the basic anchor that makes it actionable for equities?

Or am I overthinking this and statistical extremes + imply reversion work the identical no matter asset class in trending markets?

Anybody run comparable evaluation on futures? Does it translate or am I making an attempt to suit the flawed instrument to the asset?