- Prior 47.8
- Services PMI 44.9 vs 44.7 expected
- Prior 45.0
- Composite PMI 44.1 vs 45.3 expected
- Prior 45.7
The German economy sinks deeper into contraction territory to start Q4 with both the services and composite readings being at 29-month lows. Meanwhile, the manufacturing reading is a 28-month low with factory output also hitting its lowest levels in 29 months. The report highlights that high energy prices continue to have a significant negative impact on business costs and demand. Business expectations also continue to be hampered strongly by strong inflation
Inflation
Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is measured by the level of the total money supply of a specific currency, for example the US dollar, which is constantly increasing. However, an increase in the money supply does not necessarily mean that there is inflation. What leads to inflation is a faster increase in the money supply in relation to the wealth produced (measured with GDP). As such, this generates pressure of demand on a supply that does not increase at the same rate. The consumer price index then increases, generating inflation.How Does Inflation Affect Forex?The level of inflation has a direct impact on the exchange rate between two currencies on several levels.This includes purchasing power parity, which attempts to compare different purchasing powers of each country according to the general price level. In doing so, this makes it possible to determine the country with the most expensive cost of living.The currency with the higher inflation rate consequently loses value and depreciates, while the currency with the lower inflation rate appreciates on the forex market.Interest rates are also impacted. Inflation rates that are too high push interest rates up, which has the effect of depreciating the currency on foreign exchange. Conversely, inflation that is too low (or deflation) pushes interest rates down, which has the effect of appreciating the currency on the forex market.
Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is measured by the level of the total money supply of a specific currency, for example the US dollar, which is constantly increasing. However, an increase in the money supply does not necessarily mean that there is inflation. What leads to inflation is a faster increase in the money supply in relation to the wealth produced (measured with GDP). As such, this generates pressure of demand on a supply that does not increase at the same rate. The consumer price index then increases, generating inflation.How Does Inflation Affect Forex?The level of inflation has a direct impact on the exchange rate between two currencies on several levels.This includes purchasing power parity, which attempts to compare different purchasing powers of each country according to the general price level. In doing so, this makes it possible to determine the country with the most expensive cost of living.The currency with the higher inflation rate consequently loses value and depreciates, while the currency with the lower inflation rate appreciates on the forex market.Interest rates are also impacted. Inflation rates that are too high push interest rates up, which has the effect of depreciating the currency on foreign exchange. Conversely, inflation that is too low (or deflation) pushes interest rates down, which has the effect of appreciating the currency on the forex market.
Read this Term pressures. S&P Global notes that:
“The flash PMI data show the downturn in German business activity gathering pace at the start of the fourth quarter, adding to the growing signs of an impending recession in the eurozone’s largest economy.
“We’re seeing weakness across the board in the survey data, with both the manufacturing and service sectors reporting accelerating rates of contraction, led by rapidly declining inflows of new work. Businesses are reporting a growing reluctance amongst clients due to increased strain on budgets and an uncertain economic outlook, with high energy costs compounding the situation by fuelling inflationary pressures and directly impacting factory production in some cases.
“Notwithstanding the downturn in activity and deeply negative business expectations, employment levels are yet to fall, pointing to resilience in the German labour market. Firms are showing a willingness to retain staff, and even continue to fill vacancies in some cases, despite facing sharply rising costs – including wage pressures – and the growing prospect of a recession.”
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