The preliminary response to the non-farm payrolls report was to promote the greenback however then the market had a take a look at the upper wage information and there was a restoration. In the end although, a robust bid appeared for bonds and there was a rising sense that the Fed might be executed, one thing that Goldman Sachs reiterated in a word. Fed chances did not transfer a lot after the info however there’s solely a 30% likelihood of one other hike because the market grows assured that the economic system is cooling.
I additionally strongly suspect that bond consumers had been ready within the weeds to purchase Treasuries regardless of the quantity. 30-year yields moved up as a lot as 30 bps this week however purchasers would have been scared to wade in and get blown up by one other robust jobs report. So when the info was ‘adequate’ they pulled the set off, driving yields decrease and taking the greenback with it.
Initially, the greenback commerce was uniform however notably robust for the euro and pound. The latter rose to the best ranges of the week within the aftermath and USD/JPY joined in because it fell beneath 142.00.
Later within the day there was one thing of a restoration in inventory markets as equities stumbled. Shares had been robust early however pale all through the day in a 1% reversal. With that commodity currencies had been hit notably onerous and CAD ended up on the backside of the pile regardless of beneficial properties for oil and gasoline.
The week forward options the US CPI report and that will probably be one other large one because the market shifts from occupied with extra Fed hikes to pondering when in 2024 the cuts will start.
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