igoriss
My followers know that I counsel all buyers to construct and maintain a well-diversified portfolio all through the market’s up-n-down cycles. In my earlier Searching for Alpha articles on portfolio administration, I’ve mentioned how some core sector holdings can play an vital function in such a portfolio. I personally have allotted capital to the buyer staples, utilities, and know-how sectors by way of ETFs just like the (XLP), the (XLU), and (FTEC), respectively. At the moment I’m going to debate one other vital sector holding of mine: the Constancy MSCI Well being Care Index ETF (NYSEARCA:FHLC).
Funding Thesis
In difficult markets (just like the bear-market of 2022), buyers have a tendency to look out defensive sectors, for instance: shopper staples, utilities, protection & aerospace, and well being care. The healthcare sector is considered as a defensive and inflation resistant sector as a result of many healthcare points can’t be delayed and likewise as a result of healthcare suppliers can sometimes go on elevated inflationary prices immediately by to the buyer (or to the insurance coverage firm that represents that shopper). Certainly, over the previous yr the FHLC ETF outperformed the S&P500 by ~12.2%:
Contemplating that inflation remains to be excessive, the Federal Reserve remains to be in a rising rate of interest posture, and the struggle in Ukraine retains raging on, buyers are in all probability nonetheless trying on the Healthcare Sector to be considerably of a shelter-in-the-storm.
As well as, the demographics for the Healthcare Sector are fairly compelling:
U.S. Census Bureau
As you possibly can see from the graphic, the variety of People aged 65+ have been rising quickly and are anticipated to proceed to take action by 2040 and past. The variety of People aged 85 and older is projected to greater than double from 6.6 million in 2019 to 14.4 million in 2040 (a 118% improve). Older folks clearly require extra healthcare. That being the case, in the present day I am going to check out the FHLC ETF to see the way it has positioned buyers for long-term success within the Healthcare Sector.
Prime-10 Holdings
The highest-10 holdings within the FHLC ETF are proven beneath and had been taken immediately from the Constancy FHLC ETF webpage (buyers can click on on that hyperlink and discover extra detailed info on the fund). The highest-10 holdings equate to a comparatively reasonably diversified 48.6% of all the 448 firm portfolio:
Constancy
The #1 holding is diversified healthcare behemoth UnitedHealth Group (UNH) with a 8.4% weight. UNH inventory is up 4.7% over the previous yr, however closed down 1.23% Friday on the heels of This autumn outcomes that beat consensus estimates. Non-GAAP EPS got here in at $5.34/share whereas income of $82.8 billion was +12.3% yoy (a $270 million beat). UNH pays a $6.60 annual dividend, however the $489 inventory solely yields 1.35%.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is the #2 holding with a 7.9% weight. JNJ is a diversified healthcare firm that makes such well-known shopper manufacturers corresponding to Listerine, Aveeno and Neutrogena pores and skin well being/magnificence merchandise, Tylenol, Sudafed, Benadryl, and Motrin – amongst many others. JNJ inventory is up 2.2% over the previous yr and yields 2.61%.
Huge-pharma is effectively represented within the FHLC’s top-10 checklist with Eli Lilly (LLY), Pfizer (PFE), AbbVie (ABBV), Merck (MRK), and Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) holding down the #3-#6 and #10 positions, respectively, and collectively equate to 22.2% of all the portfolio. Lilly is up 44.8% over the previous yr, whereas Pfizer is down 13.8%. ABBV yields 3.85%, Merck 2.6%, and BMY yields 3.14%.
The #9 holding is numerous medical, industrial, and industrial machine maker Danaher Corp (DHR) with a 3.1% weight. Danaher’s inventory has gained 174% over the previous 5-year. DHR trades with a ahead P/E = 26x and yields solely 0.37% with a $1/share annual dividend.
Efficiency
The FHLC ETF has an admirable 5-year common annual return of 11.57%:
Constancy
The fund’s inception was in October of 2013, and due to this fact will not have a 10-year efficiency observe file till later this yr. Morningstar has given the fund a 4-star score, and the next graphic compares FHLC’s 5-year complete returns with a few of its friends: the Well being Care Choose Sector SPDR (XLV), the Vanguard Well being Care ETF (VHT), and the iShares U.S. Healthcare ETF (IYH):
As you possibly can see from the graphic, apart from the SPDR Healthcare ETF XLV – which has outperformed – the opposite three ETFs are grouped round a 65-66% 5-year complete return vary. The XLV ETF’s expense ratio (0.10%) is a pair foundation factors larger than FHLC’s (0.08%), however the yield can also be larger (1.47% vs 1.30%).
Dangers
Whereas Well being Care is usually thought of to be a defensively oriented sector, it’s nonetheless not proof against the general financial surroundings: excessive inflation, a nonetheless very lively Covid-19 pandemic, larger rates of interest, and the adverse influence that Putin’s war-of-choice on Ukraine is having on the worldwide financial system. Any – or all of those – may mix to push the U.S. and/or the worldwide financial system into recession and negatively have an effect on the shares held within the FHLC ETF.
Abstract & Conclusions
The well being care sector is comparatively numerous – with every part from medical machine & gear makers, to pharmaceutical drug makers, healthcare suppliers, and shopper items producers. The demographics – with a extremely rising older age inhabitants – are fairly constructive for the sector going ahead.
Given the comparatively low yield (1.30%), the first funding alternative right here is capital appreciation – not revenue.
I do not see any short-term catalyst for the healthcare group, and can reiterate my HOLD score on FHLC. That mentioned, buyers trying to set up a diversified place within the healthcare sector – both by way of FHLC or maybe the XLV ETF – I recommend including them to your watch checklist to try to benefit from market volatility to slowly common into the funds – over time – on market weak point.
I am going to finish with a 5-year complete returns comparability of the FHLC and XLV healthcare ETFs with the broad market averages as represented by the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) and the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) and observe that – regardless of the 2022 bear-market – the triple Qs nonetheless lead the pack:
