Charges, Guidelines & Learn how to Commerce

Robinhood now helps you to commerce on the end result of real-world occasions — from Fed fee selections to elections to sports activities — by way of a product it manufacturers Predict. Below the hood, what you’re truly shopping for is an occasion contract: a regulated spinoff that pays $1 in the event you’re proper and $0 in the event you’re unsuitable. This text walks by way of what Robinhood prediction markets are, how occasion contracts work and what the CFTC says about them, what they value after the June 2026 charge change, who’s eligible to commerce, and the dangers price understanding earlier than you fund an account.

Open a Free Robinhood Account and Add Funds to Begin Buying and selling Occasion Contracts

What Are Robinhood Prediction Markets?

Predict is the title Robinhood offers the tab in its app the place you commerce occasion contracts. The instrument itself isn’t a Robinhood invention — occasion contracts are supplied by way of Robinhood Derivatives, LLC (RHD), a registered futures fee service provider with the CFTC and a member of the NFA, and so they commerce on considered one of three exchanges: KalshiEX LLC, ForecastEX LLC, or Rothera Trade and Clearing LLC. Rothera is a CFTC-licensed change and clearinghouse Robinhood runs by way of a three way partnership with Susquehanna Worldwide Group.

That construction issues. You’re not betting in opposition to Robinhood, and also you’re not betting in opposition to one other buyer instantly — you’re buying and selling a contract on a regulated change, the identical fundamental structure as futures and choices, simply constructed round a yes-or-no query as an alternative of a worth degree.

How Do Robinhood Prediction Markets Work?

Each occasion contract is a binary Sure/No query — “Will the Fed lower charges in September?” or “Will Staff X win the championship?” — with two attainable outcomes at settlement: the contract pays $1 per contract in the event you’re proper, and $0 per contract in the event you’re unsuitable. There’s no partial credit score and no sliding payout; it resolves to 1 or the opposite.

Earlier than settlement, contracts commerce wherever from $0.01 to $0.99, and that worth displays the market’s implied chance. A contract buying and selling at $0.65 implies the market at the moment sees roughly a 65% likelihood of that end result — it’s not a forecast, and it’s not Robinhood’s opinion; it’s merely what patrons and sellers are keen to pay proper now, and it strikes as new data arrives. Robinhood’s personal steerage is price repeating right here: if a query is worded as a double unfavourable, learn it rigorously earlier than you decide a aspect.

What “Sure” and “No” Actually Imply

Shopping for “Sure” means you’re paying right this moment’s worth for a declare that pays $1 if the occasion occurs as acknowledged, and $0 if it doesn’t. Shopping for “No” is the mirror picture — you’re taking the opposite aspect of the identical query. As a result of costs transfer repeatedly between $0.01 and $0.99, you don’t have to carry a contract to settlement; you possibly can promote it earlier than the occasion resolves if the worth strikes in your favor (or in opposition to you).

How Contract Costs Mirror Likelihood

Consider the worth as a working vote rely, not a assure. As cash strikes out and in of a contract, the worth shifts to replicate what the market at the moment believes is probably going. That’s a helpful strategy to learn the market, however it’s not the identical factor as a prediction of what is going to truly occur — a contract priced at $0.90 can nonetheless settle at $0, and does, every time the less-likely end result happens.

What You Can Commerce on Robinhood Predict

As of August 2026, Robinhood Predict covers a variety of classes, and the combination goes nicely past sports activities:

• Economics — together with Federal Reserve fee selections
• Politics and elections
• Crypto
• Local weather
• Commodities and metals
• Leisure
• Schooling
• Know-how
• Esports
• Sports activities — NFL, NBA, WNBA, school basketball, baseball, tennis, cricket, golf, soccer, MMA, boxing, racing, and chess

Sports activities will get essentially the most consideration as a result of it’s essentially the most acquainted entry level, however the fastest-growing classes on the platform proper now are financial and political — questions like Fed coverage and election outcomes, the place an occasion contract helps you to take a direct place on a real-world query reasonably than buying and selling a inventory as a proxy for it.

Prediction Markets vs Sports activities Betting: What’s Really Totally different

That is the query most first-time readers even have, and it deserves a straight reply, not a dodge. Robinhood is specific that occasion contracts aren’t bets: they’re a type of hypothesis in prediction markets, and the excellence is structural, not simply semantic.

A sports activities wager is a non-public settlement with a bookmaker at mounted odds the home units; you’re taking the opposite aspect of a guess in opposition to the home, and also you’re usually locked in till the occasion ends. An occasion contract is an exchange-traded spinoff: the worth is about by the market (different patrons and sellers), not by a bookmaker, it’s cleared by way of a CFTC-regulated change, and — as a result of it trades repeatedly between $0.01 and $0.99 — you possibly can promote your place earlier than the occasion resolves as an alternative of ready it out. The economics and the oversight are completely different from a sportsbook, even when the underlying query (who wins a recreation) sounds the identical.

That distinction is real, and it’s additionally why regulators are paying shut consideration to sports-based occasion contracts particularly. Sports activities contracts are essentially the most actively contested nook of this market: the class has drawn regulatory scrutiny, and a few states prohibit it outright (extra on that beneath). If you happen to’re drawn to Predict primarily for financial, political, or crypto questions, that regulatory debate is basically inappropriate; in the event you’re drawn to it for sports activities, it’s price understanding the bottom remains to be shifting.

What Occasion Contracts Value on Robinhood

The charge construction modified on June 1, 2026. Robinhood moved from a flat per-contract charge to a probability-weighted fee:

fee = ok × p × (1 − p) × c

the place ok is 5% for Robinhood Gold members or 10% for everybody else, p is the contract worth expressed as a decimal, and c is the variety of contracts. The result’s rounded as much as the closest $0.01 and capped at $0.01 per contract. There’s additionally a separate change charge, as much as $0.01 per contract, that varies by change. Each the fee and the change charge apply on the best way in and the best way out — opening and shutting a place are every their very own commerce.

As a result of the formulation multiplies worth by (1 − worth), commissions are lowest at high-conviction costs close to the extremes ($0.01 or $0.99) and highest close to the center ($0.50), the place the cap tends to bind. Robinhood’s personal labored instance: shopping for 100 “Sure” contracts at $0.90, with a $0.01-per-contract change charge, prices $0.45 in fee with Gold ($91.45 whole) or $0.90 with out Gold ($91.90 whole).

Robinhood’s printed fee desk for 100 contracts (Gold / with out Gold) reveals the sample clearly: $0.01 → $0.05 / $0.10, $0.10 → $0.45 / $0.90, $0.25 → $0.94 / $1.00, the $0.28–$0.72 vary → $1.00 / $1.00 (the place the $0.01-per-contract cap binds), $0.75 → $0.94 / $1.00, $0.90 → $0.45 / $0.90, and $0.99 → $0.05 / $0.10.

A fast notice on Gold: it does lower the fee fee in half, and that’s an actual quantity price understanding in the event you’re evaluating prices. Nevertheless it’s an optionally available add-on, not a requirement — you don’t want Gold to commerce occasion contracts, and the account you really need first is the free Robinhood brokerage account paired with a separate, authorised Derivatives account (extra on that beneath).

Fund Your Robinhood Account and See What’s Buying and selling on Predict At the moment

Who Can Commerce Occasion Contracts on Robinhood

Buying and selling occasion contracts requires a separate, authorised Robinhood Derivatives account — it’s distinct from an ordinary brokerage account, and approval considers your buying and selling expertise, funding profile, and state of residence.

A couple of restrictions to know up entrance, plainly, as a result of they’ll have an effect on whether or not you possibly can truly use this product:

• Predict is mobile-app solely. You may view contracts on the internet, however you possibly can’t commerce them there, and so they’re not accessible on Robinhood Legend.
• Maryland residents can’t commerce occasion contracts in any respect.
• Nevada residents can’t open new sports activities contracts, as of December 1, 2025.
• Employment-based restrictions apply to individuals who could maintain materials private data related to a given contract.
• You may decide out of sports activities notifications and occasion contracts fully in account settings, if you would like the remainder of Robinhood with out this product.

Funding, Settlement, and Getting Paid

Occasion contract shopping for energy is separate out of your brokerage and crypto shopping for energy, and it sweeps routinely between the 2 — you possibly can’t transfer it manually. Instantaneous Deposits is probably not accessible for occasion contracts, which suggests in some instances solely totally settled money can be utilized to open a place.

When a contract settles, proceeds land again in your shopping for energy inside one enterprise day. Timing issues right here: an occasion that settles on a Friday could not go away you with usable funds till the next Monday.

Virtually, that is additionally why opening and funding the account early is price doing earlier than you’ve picked a contract, not after: since occasion contracts draw on settled money and a separate shopping for energy pool, your funds have to already be in place and settled by the point you discover a contract you wish to commerce — not nonetheless clearing.

Add Funds to Your Robinhood Account to Get Your Shopping for Energy Prepared

Taxes and Your Annual Assertion

If you happen to commerce occasion contracts, Robinhood points an occasion contracts annual assertion after year-end, usually in late January or early February, protecting your transactions, prices, proceeds, charges, and internet revenue or loss for the 12 months. Robinhood states plainly that this assertion is not a substitute tax reporting type. This text isn’t tax recommendation — in the event you commerce occasion contracts, discuss to a tax skilled about report the exercise.

The Dangers — and What Prediction Markets Are Not

Not one of the above is price a lot with out being direct about what can go unsuitable, so right here it’s straight:

• You may lose all the things you paid for a contract. If a contract settles in opposition to you, it pays $0. That’s a complete lack of the premium you paid for that place, not a partial one.
• Occasion contracts by way of Robinhood Derivatives aren’t FDIC insured and never SIPC protected. This can be a significant distinction from Robinhood’s brokerage accounts: SIPC protection applies to the brokerage entities (Robinhood Monetary / Robinhood Securities), to not Robinhood Derivatives, which is the place occasion contracts reside. If you happen to’re used to pondering of your Robinhood account as SIPC-protected, that safety doesn’t prolong to cash in occasion contracts.
• A contract’s worth isn’t a forecast. A $0.65 worth means the market at the moment implies roughly a 65% likelihood — it doesn’t imply there’s a 65% likelihood, and it isn’t Robinhood (or anybody else) telling you what is going to occur.
• Occasion contracts aren’t bets, however they’re speculative. Robinhood’s personal language is that these are a type of hypothesis in prediction markets, not wagers in opposition to a home. That’s an correct description of the mechanism, not a declare that the end result is safer or extra predictable than a guess can be.
• Nothing right here is funding recommendation. This text explains how the product works; it doesn’t inform you which contracts to purchase or which outcomes are extra seemingly. That call, and the danger that comes with it, is yours.
• The regulatory image remains to be shifting. The CFTC has open rulemaking on occasion contracts, and sports-based contracts particularly stay essentially the most contested class, with state-level restrictions already in place in Maryland and Nevada. For the regulator’s personal shopper steerage on this product, see the CFTC’s web page on prediction markets and occasion contracts, which covers what you’re entitled to as a buyer of a registered change and what to be careful for.

None of this makes occasion contracts illegitimate — they’re a regulated, CFTC-overseen product, supplied by a licensed futures fee service provider, on licensed exchanges. It does imply the trustworthy model of this product is “a strategy to take a place on a real-world query, with actual and total-loss threat,” not “a simple strategy to earn money,” and any protection that skips the second half isn’t providing you with the complete image.

Is Robinhood Predict Price It?

Robinhood Predict makes essentially the most sense for somebody who’s already snug with Robinhood, needs to take a small, defined-risk place on a selected real-world query — a fee resolution, an election, a crypto milestone — and understands getting into {that a} unsuitable name means shedding the complete quantity paid for that contract, not one thing smaller. The decrease value at high-conviction costs (close to $0.01 or $0.99) additionally means it suits finest with clear, high-confidence views reasonably than coin-flip questions, the place the fee construction eats extra of any edge.

It makes much less sense for anybody on the lookout for an alternative choice to a diversified investing technique, anybody who isn’t ready to deal with the quantity paid for a contract as cash they might totally lose, and — given the mobile-only design and state restrictions — anybody who must commerce from a desktop or who lives in Maryland (occasion contracts typically) or Nevada (new sports activities contracts particularly).

Able to Take a Place? Open and Fund Your Robinhood Account

Often Requested Questions