Inflation Outlook Shifting Ahead
The short-term outlook for inflation is very unsure. US tariffs may decrease eurozone inflation by lowering exports and slowing financial progress. These tariffs additionally enhance the provision of products within the eurozone because the US makes it tougher to entry their market. Nevertheless, if the European Fee retaliates, it may push inflation larger since these measures act like a home tax that customers will partly bear.
Final 12 months in March, ECB President Lagarde hinted at potential fee cuts, saying, “we’ll know somewhat extra in April and much more in June.” This 12 months, by April, she’ll have way more readability on US tariffs on European items and the EU’s deliberate response, which can be mentioned on the April ECB assembly. This may play a giant function in deciding future rates of interest.
One concern is that the job market continues to be very tight, with hitting a file low of 6.1% in February, in response to Eurostat information launched on Tuesday. For now, in the present day’s lower-than-expected inflation helps the case for an additional fee reduce to convey charges nearer to impartial.
Markets at the moment are pricing in round an 82% likelihood of a 25 bps fee reduce on the ECB assembly on April 17.
ECB Curiosity Charge Expectations
Supply: LSEG
Markets at the moment are bracing for ‘liberation day’ tariffs from US President Donald Trump tomorrow.
On Monday, ECB President Christine Lagarde advised France Inter radio that April 2, known as “Liberation Day” by Trump, needs to be a time for everybody to work collectively to take “higher management of our future” and transfer in the direction of independence.
As for what to anticipate from the tariff announcement tomorrow, The Washington Publish reported on Tuesday that White Home employees have ready a plan to introduce a 20% tariff on most items imported into the U.S.
In response to the report, President Donald Trump’s crew is contemplating utilizing the large income from these tariffs to offer tax refunds or dividends. Whether or not it will work is debatable given the historical past of tariffs and their impression on world markets.
Technical Evaluation – DAX Index (DAX 40)
from a technical standpoint, the index has loved a stellar 2025 YTD.
Nevertheless, current technicals have advised {that a} potential correction could also be within the offing with a possible double prime sample forming at current highs. A break of the neckline has but to materialize nonetheless, and in the present day’s weaker inflation information has helped with that.
Nevertheless, a each day candle shut under the 22405 deal with (neckline) may result in an accelerated selloff within the DAX simply as President Trump prepares his tariff bulletins.
This leaves the DAX in a precarious scenario at current, with quick resistance resting at 22886, 23200 and naturally the current highs at 23454.
Fast help rests at 22405, 21758 earlier than the 200-day MA comes into focus at 21164.
DAX 40 Day by day Chart, April 1, 2025 
Supply: TradingView.com
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