Euro, EUR/USD, US Greenback, DAX, Crude Oil, JPY, CHF, NOK, SEK, Russia – Speaking Factors

• The Euro slid decrease to start out the week on a volatility breakout as geopolitical dangers rise
• APAC equities softened whereas Euro and US shares are set to sink additional
• Commodity markets have exploded on provide issues in power and wheat
• All eyes on Russia, Ukraine tensions.Wailing EUR/USD make a brand new low?

The Euro is beneath strain once more after a weekend of bulletins noticed a rush to haven currencies such because the US Greenback, Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc.

The Norwegian Krone and the Swedish Krona had been the notable underperformers to start out the week, regardless of crude oil surging larger.WTI is above US$ 97 bbl whereas Brent stays above US$ 103 bbl.

The markets understand that OPEC+ will stick with their manufacturing output quotas after they meet on Wednesday.

All power commodities have been boosted by a scarcity obtainable provide as a consequence of Russian oil and fuel now being severely disrupted. Gold stays above US$ 1,900 per ounce.

Gentle commodities are largely larger whereas wheat has rocketed up with Ukrainian and Russian provides now offline for the foreseeable future. The 2 international locations provide round 25% of world wheat demand.

Regardless of larger commodity costs throughout the board, AUD and NZD are sliding decrease as risk-off and development issues are the main focus for the market. Russia has the 11th largest GDP on the earth.

The swathe of sanctions introduced over the weekend embrace a ban on any funds by a Russian financial institution by way of SWIFT, seizing the Russian central financial institution’s belongings globally, confiscating Russian oligarchs’ offshore belongings and banning Russian exports.

The shutting out of Russia from the SWIFT fee system is being in contrast by some out there to a “Lehman second”. The influence may be long-reaching and has the potential for unintended penalties.

The ultimate end result in 2008 was not as unhealthy as initially feared, nevertheless it took a very long time to untangle the plethora of Worldwide Swaps and Derivatives Affiliation (ISDA) agreements.

Bloomberg is reporting that Chinese language banks aren’t facilitating funds linked to Russian commodity transactions.

In any case, what we’re seeing in the meanwhile is the redeployment of capital. US Treasury yields are decrease throughout the curve as buyers purchase high-quality belongings. The benchmark 10-year is buying and selling close to 1.89%

Conversely, futures markets are pointing towards a detrimental begin for each the European and North American fairness indices. The Euro Stoxx 50 and Germany’s DAX index are taking a look at losses of greater than 3% to start out the day.

The DAX is coming beneath specific scrutiny as Germany depends closely on Russian power to feed industrial manufacturing.

Asian equities had been typically softer, excluding Australia’s ASX 200 as a result of sturdy commodity end result.

A much bigger query is lurking across the nook and that’s, what does all of this imply for the following FOMC assembly of the Federal Reserve?

A March hike had been baked in, however some questions would possibly now emerge, relying on how this pans out within the coming weeks.

Wanting forward, after Swiss GDP numbers, the US will see inventories and PMI information.

EUR/USD Technical Evaluation

EUR/USD has seen an explosion in volatility with giant every day ranges during the last 3 days. The pierce beneath the earlier low has been initially rejected however it’s now weak as soon as once more.

These stretched strikes decrease have seen the worth transfer beneath the decrease band of the 21-day easy shifting common (SMA)based mostly Bollinger Band.

A sustained moved exterior the band could point out ongoing volatility and bearish momentum may unfold. Ought to the 21-day SMA cross beneath the 55-day SMA, this would possibly affirm bearish momentum.

Help could lie on the earlier lows of 1.11215 and 1.11065.

On the topside, close by resistance might be on the pivot factors of 1.12802 and 1.13751 and the prior excessive of 1.13959.

Chart created in TradingView

— Written by Daniel McCarthy, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the feedback part beneath or @DanMcCathyFX on Twitter