In its March 2025 Quick-Time period Power Outlook, the U.S. Power Info Administration (EIA) forecast crude oil manufacturing in Alaska will enhance by 16,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2026 to 438,000 bpd after remaining comparatively flat in 2025. Two new oil developments in Alaska — the Nuna and Pikka tasks — are anticipated to spice up crude oil manufacturing within the state after a long time of decline. If realized, this annual manufacturing enhance would be the first since 2017 and the most important since 2002.
Common annual crude oil manufacturing in Alaska peaked at 2.0 million bpd in 1988, and manufacturing has since fallen largely due to the manufacturing decline of mature oil fields, restricted lease availability, and excessive exploration and manufacturing prices.
ConocoPhillips produced first oil from the Nuna undertaking in December 2024. We forecast annual crude oil manufacturing in Alaska to common 422,000 bpd in 2025, an annual enhance of 1,000 bpd, in contrast with the earlier five-year (2020–24) common annual decline of 9,000 b/d. The decline in present properly manufacturing is offset by the added manufacturing from the Nuna undertaking on the North Slope. ConocoPhillips expects the Nuna undertaking’s 29 wells will produce a mixed 20,000 bpd of oil at its peak.
Further manufacturing from Section 1 of the Pikka improvement undertaking on the North Slope drives the forecast elevated manufacturing in 2026. The Pikka undertaking, which is collectively owned by Santos and Repsol, is likely one of the most important oil developments in Alaska in recent times. On the undertaking’s peak, the businesses plan to provide 80,000 bpd from 45 wells.
The tasks can be among the many most efficient wells in Alaska if they arrive on-line as the businesses are presently planning. EIA’s annual U.S. Oil and Pure Fuel Wells by Manufacturing Charge report particulars state-level distributions of energetic manufacturing. The manufacturing profile for Alaska in 2023 information 2,340 energetic wells, 65% of which produce greater than 100 barrels of oil equal per day (boed).
The manufacturing estimates from the Nuna and Pikka wells reported by the businesses fall on the excessive aspect of the 2023 Alaskan energetic properly distribution. As of 2023, the very best focus of energetic Alaskan wells was between 100 boed and 200 boed. The reported manufacturing charges present these upcoming tasks to be on the manufacturing brackets of 400 boed–799 boed and 1,600 boed–3,199 boed, respectively.
Though each onshore and offshore drilling happen in Alaska, many of the exercise is on land, notably within the North Slope, which is the place the Nuna and Pikka tasks are being developed.
As of December 2024, 22% of the wells for the Nuna and Pikka tasks have been drilled, based on firm experiences and the Alaska Oil and Fuel Conservation Fee. The businesses plan to drill an extra 58 wells by 2028, which might assist comparatively excessive rig exercise.
The elevated crude oil manufacturing will go to provide refineries in Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and California.
Header picture: ConocoPhillip’s Nuna undertaking achieved first oil in December 2024. Picture courtesy of ConocoPhillips
