China’s parliamentary committees meet within the week forward, starting on Sunday in an occasion that can define key authorities insurance policies and targets. Chief amongst them might be a GDP progress estimate, which authorities advisors at present suggest at 4.5-5.5%. The consensus from economists is 4.9% however there’s some chatter about 6%.
The 2 swing components are 1) pent up demand from the reopening 2) the broken property sector.
The federal government is predicted to widen its annual funds deficit to round 3% of gross home product this yr and problem about 4 trillion yuan in particular bonds to help funding spending, in line with Reuters sources. A few of that’s already priced into markets so dangers might run each methods however I see extra upside than draw back, given China’s (latest) penchant for over-promising and as a result of new management trying to solidify its authority.
Spots to observe might be Chinese language equities, commodities and commodity currencies. AUD/USD confirmed some life on Friday however was unable to get above the weekly excessive.
AUDUSD each day
For extra, here is a factbox on the NPC.