Bitcoin’s long-standing narrative as “digital gold” is being put to the check as its current worth motion more and more resembles that of a high-risk progress asset relatively than a standard secure haven, based on new analysis from Grayscale.
Report writer Zach Pandl mentioned on Tuesday that whereas Grayscale nonetheless views Bitcoin (BTC) as a long-term retailer of worth as a result of its mounted provide and independence from central banking authorities, current market habits suggests in any other case.
“Bitcoin’s short-term worth actions haven’t been tightly correlated with gold or different valuable metals,” Pandl wrote, pointing to file rallies in bullion and silver costs.
As an alternative, the evaluation discovered that Bitcoin has developed a powerful correlation with software program shares, significantly since early 2024. That sector has not too long ago come underneath intense promoting stress amid issues that synthetic intelligence may disrupt or render many software program companies out of date.
The report suggests Bitcoin’s rising sensitivity to equities and progress belongings displays its deeper integration into conventional monetary markets, pushed partly by institutional participation, exchange-traded fund exercise and shifting macroeconomic danger sentiment.
The shift comes as Bitcoin has skilled a couple of 50% drawdown from its October peak above $126,000. The decline unfolded in a number of waves, starting with a historic October 2025 liquidation occasion, adopted by renewed promoting in late November and once more in late January 2026. Grayscale additionally pointed to “motivated US sellers” in current weeks, citing persistent worth reductions on Coinbase.
Associated: Crypto’s 2026 funding playbook: Bitcoin, stablecoin infrastructure, tokenized belongings
A part of Bitcoin’s ongoing evolution
Bitcoin’s current failure to stay as much as its safe-haven narrative shouldn’t be considered as a setback however relatively as a part of the asset’s ongoing evolution, based on Grayscale.
Pandl mentioned it could have been unrealistic to count on Bitcoin to displace gold as a financial asset in such a brief interval.
“Gold has been used as cash for 1000’s of years and served because the spine of the worldwide financial system till the early Seventies,” Pandl wrote.
Whereas Bitcoin’s failure to succeed in related financial standing is “central to the funding thesis,” he mentioned, it may evolve in that course over time as the worldwide financial system turns into more and more digitized by way of synthetic intelligence, autonomous brokers and tokenized monetary markets.
Within the close to time period, Bitcoin’s restoration might depend upon contemporary capital coming into the market, both by way of renewed ETF inflows or a return of retail traders. Market maker Wintermute mentioned retail participation has not too long ago been concentrated in AI-related shares and progress narratives, limiting near-term demand for crypto belongings.
Associated: Wall Road’s crypto debate is over as banks go all-in on BTC, stablecoins, tokenized money
