I can’t remember many things that have ever fallen for 12 straight days but here we are. Bitcoin is down another $2420 today, breaking the $20,000 level and continuing lower to $18,171, which is scarcely above the session lows.
This is the lowest since mid-December 2020 and there isn’t much in the way of support on the weekly chart.
While bitcoin’s 12% decline today is bad, the 14.5% drop in ethereum is even worse. It’s broken $1000 for the first time since January 2021 and has continued to $932.
Last week we highlighted the importance of $1700 as support and — wow — did it ever implode after the break. It’s down 45% in less that two weeks.
The catalyst for the latest leg down was the implosion of luna, followed by the problems at Celsius and then the evident downfall of the crypto hedge fund
Hedge Fund
Hedge funds are investment funds that utilize a combination of funds and diverse trading strategies to optimize returns for investors. These funds trade in a wide range of assets and in doing so can better leverage more complex trading techniques, risk management, and portfolio strategies. Hedge funds’ primary functions are improved performance relative to individual assets, thereby generating improved performance. This is aided by several different strategies such as short-selling techniques, the use of leverage, or derivatives, among others. Who Uses Hedge Funds? Hedge funds are not common to the ordinary retail investor and for good reason. Their complexity and regulatory authorities in the United States and other jurisdictions often prohibit the lay trader from relying on these relative to more normalized investment strategies. As such, hedge funds are typically reserved for high net-worth investors, institutional traders, or other similarly advanced traders. These funds are classified as alternative investments, contrasting notably with the more readily accessible mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These are much more common amongst ordinary retail traders. Hedge funds traditionally involve the investment of liquid assets, meaning users can either inject more capital or withdraw it based on the fund’s overall net asset value.These funds have seen a sharp increase in regulation in recent years given the fallout of the global financial crisis. The impetus for this was a desire by regulators to better police hedge funds, employing higher oversight and shoring up regulatory loopholes. Hedge fund managers operate by virtue of fees that are charged by investment managers. These are usually required on an annual basis, along with a performance fee of the net asset value (NAV).
Hedge funds are investment funds that utilize a combination of funds and diverse trading strategies to optimize returns for investors. These funds trade in a wide range of assets and in doing so can better leverage more complex trading techniques, risk management, and portfolio strategies. Hedge funds’ primary functions are improved performance relative to individual assets, thereby generating improved performance. This is aided by several different strategies such as short-selling techniques, the use of leverage, or derivatives, among others. Who Uses Hedge Funds? Hedge funds are not common to the ordinary retail investor and for good reason. Their complexity and regulatory authorities in the United States and other jurisdictions often prohibit the lay trader from relying on these relative to more normalized investment strategies. As such, hedge funds are typically reserved for high net-worth investors, institutional traders, or other similarly advanced traders. These funds are classified as alternative investments, contrasting notably with the more readily accessible mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These are much more common amongst ordinary retail traders. Hedge funds traditionally involve the investment of liquid assets, meaning users can either inject more capital or withdraw it based on the fund’s overall net asset value.These funds have seen a sharp increase in regulation in recent years given the fallout of the global financial crisis. The impetus for this was a desire by regulators to better police hedge funds, employing higher oversight and shoring up regulatory loopholes. Hedge fund managers operate by virtue of fees that are charged by investment managers. These are usually required on an annual basis, along with a performance fee of the net asset value (NAV). Read this Term 3AC.
Nothing goes straight down forever and bear-market
Bear Market
A bear market is defined as a financial market in which prices are falling or are expected to decline. This designation is most commonly used in the stock market, though can also be applied to other markets as well, including real estate, foreign exchange, commodities, etc.A bear market differs from periodic declines in assets by virtue of its duration, not frequency. For example, a bear market will typically see extended periods during which large numbers of stock share prices are falling over months, or possibly even years.Bear Markets ExplainedLike any asset, movements are driven by speculation and by extension levels of optimism in markets. In the case of bear markets, investor confidence is weak and a driver of assets in a downward direction. Of course, there are multiple factors at work with any sustained or directional push of asset prices. This influences speculation, psychological effects, and other external stimuli. Oftentimes, bear markets do not have a clear start or end point, nor do they use any specific metrics in their analysis or identification. Rather, the case of the stock market can help define a bear market. For example, if stock prices fall by 20%, typically after a rise of 20% and before a second 20% rise, then it can be surmised that a bear market is in effect.Moreover, bear markets are notoriously difficult to forecast, though there are also several different factors that exist that can help usher a bear market as well. Bear markets commonly take place when the economy is shrinking or during periods of weakness, turmoil, or uncertainty.This is supported by weak gross domestic product (GDP) readings and a sustained rise in unemployment or declines in corporate profits. Investor confidence is also a notable determinant, which tends to have a sustained fall during a bear market period.
A bear market is defined as a financial market in which prices are falling or are expected to decline. This designation is most commonly used in the stock market, though can also be applied to other markets as well, including real estate, foreign exchange, commodities, etc.A bear market differs from periodic declines in assets by virtue of its duration, not frequency. For example, a bear market will typically see extended periods during which large numbers of stock share prices are falling over months, or possibly even years.Bear Markets ExplainedLike any asset, movements are driven by speculation and by extension levels of optimism in markets. In the case of bear markets, investor confidence is weak and a driver of assets in a downward direction. Of course, there are multiple factors at work with any sustained or directional push of asset prices. This influences speculation, psychological effects, and other external stimuli. Oftentimes, bear markets do not have a clear start or end point, nor do they use any specific metrics in their analysis or identification. Rather, the case of the stock market can help define a bear market. For example, if stock prices fall by 20%, typically after a rise of 20% and before a second 20% rise, then it can be surmised that a bear market is in effect.Moreover, bear markets are notoriously difficult to forecast, though there are also several different factors that exist that can help usher a bear market as well. Bear markets commonly take place when the economy is shrinking or during periods of weakness, turmoil, or uncertainty.This is supported by weak gross domestic product (GDP) readings and a sustained rise in unemployment or declines in corporate profits. Investor confidence is also a notable determinant, which tends to have a sustained fall during a bear market period. Read this Term bounces can be incredible. As bad as these charts look, there will be bounces but right now it’s a negative feedback loop to the downside.
Even more worrisome are the persistent questions about the usefulness of Web 3.0. The idea of a decentralized and permissionless internet is intoxicating but a decade later, we’re still struggling develop for legal use cases. At the same time, the cheap money has dried up so it will be increasingly difficult to build something novel. Hopefully the seeds have been planted for something besides speculation and money laundering.
This thread from the founders of AirBnB and Box made a good point about product-market fit in a January thread.
Levie added to this today, saying:
“And this was the diplomatic version 🙃. I don’t believe it’s a good idea for the tech industry to be running around saying we’ve figured out a revolutionary new internet (which is patently untrue) while taking in consumer investment in a flawed system before PMF.”
That’s a stinging critique but it’s also a sign of the phase that we’re in right now. People are gnawing at the core of the idea.
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