Bear markets are notoriously nerve racking with every drawdown presenting its personal set of distinctive circumstances. But historical past reveals that staying invested by way of volatility is usually crucial to reaching long-term success. Because the saying goes, volatility is the worth you pay for long-term efficiency. Even probably the most extreme bouts of volatility haven’t stood in the way in which of success for buyers who maintained a long-term method to investing.
This publish offers knowledge to assist buyers put bear markets in historic context and acquire confidence of their long-term funding plans. To do this, we analyzed 15 bear markets since 1950, utilizing the S&P 500 to match recessionary and non-recessionary declines throughout three key dimensions — throughout each drawdowns and recoveries:
Magnitude and Period of Drawdown
- Magnitude of non-recessionary bears is a shallower -22% in comparison with the median -35% drawdown felt when bear markets coincide with recessions.
- Period of non-recessionary bears averaged solely three months in comparison with 18 months for recessionary.
Financial and Fiscal Coverage Developments
- All of the recessionary bear markets occurred with an inverted yield curve.
- In the one yield curve inversion the place a recession was averted, the deficit to GDP ratio elevated by 3% throughout the interval of fed tightening and curve inversion. This has additionally been true to this point in present yield curve inversion interval.
Funding Type Differentiation
- Low Volatility and Dividend types have been probably the most resilient in drawdowns no matter whether or not recessionary situations have been current.
- Restoration efficiency in non-recessionary intervals favored High quality and Development in comparison with Worth and Small Caps after recessionary bear markets.
Recessionary vs. Non-Recessionary
There are key variations in recessionary and non-recessionary bear markets.
The median drawdown for recessionary bear markets was -35%, about 50% deeper than non-recessionary bears. Non-recessionary bear markets are normally attributable to short-term concern that the financial system is stalling or getting into a recession. And as optimistic knowledge emerges, the concern — and drawdown — subside. The extra 10% to twenty% drawdown appears to coincide with proof of recession lastly surfacing within the knowledge, moreover supported by an additional 12 months of length because it digests the adverse knowledge (not sentiment). Curiously, there was just one time in historical past that we’ve skilled back-to-back, non-recessionary bear markets, and that was throughout the fiscally supportive Nineteen Sixties.
Determine 1: Bear Markets by the Numbers
Disclosures: Please see appendix for definitions and citations.
Bear Markets Are likely to Run Deeper When Valuations Are Excessive
For our valuation measurement, we determined to make use of the CAPE ratio as a result of trailing 12-month earnings are extremely unstable throughout recessions, thus distorting the P/E ratio. For instance, the 92% drop in earnings in 2008 didn’t replicate long run views concerning what earnings have been more likely to be 5 to 10 years sooner or later, which is the muse for point-in-time valuations.
We discovered valuation to be a horrible timing mechanism for each bear markets and recessions, however valuation did typically issue into the severity of a bear market — with lofty valuations extra typically related to extreme bear markets.
The hyperlink between the severity of the recession and the depth of the bear market is questionable at finest. For instance, the 2000s bear market began with excessive valuation that was diminished by virtually half by the point the market discovered a backside. Notably, the 2000s bear market stands out as a result of it had the smallest decline in actual GDP of all of the recessionary bears, but it produced one of many longest and deepest drawdowns.
One other instance of modifications in valuation mattering to the severity of bear markets is the 1980 to 1982 drawdown. This was probably the most extreme recessions and actual GDP declines. Nevertheless, the beginning valuation was low cost, particularly by right this moment’s requirements, leading to a slightly gentle recessionary bear market decline of -27%.
Determine 2: Change in Valuation Throughout Bear Markets
Disclosures: Please see appendix for definitions and citations.
Earnings and GDP Impression
We took Shiller’s S&P 500 Earnings and analyzed the variations between recessionary and non-recessionary bears. The median earnings decline throughout recessionary bears was sometimes adverse, corresponding with the shrinking financial system. However, non-recessionary intervals typically had rising earnings.
One other attention-grabbing distinction between recessionary and non-recessionary bear markets is the place the market peaks and bottoms relative to earnings. Non-recessionary bear markets are inclined to peak and backside comparatively shut with earnings. Nevertheless, recessionary bears tended to backside upfront of earnings by 9 months.
Determine 3: Change in Earnings Throughout Bear Markets
Disclosures: Please see appendix for definitions and citations.
Financial and Fiscal Coverage: Clues to Recession Threat
Fiscal and financial coverage additionally contribute to the severity of bear markets since they will affect the likelihood of recessions. The yield curve stays probably the most dependable predictor over horizons better than one 12 months, notes a Federal Reserve Financial institution of Chicago paper.
Fed mountaineering cycles are normally the perpetrator of yield curve inversions. We depend 11 mountaineering cycles leading to 9 yield curve inversions and eight recessions with corresponding bear markets. The present mountaineering cycle and yield curve inversion is excluded as a result of the cycle has not but accomplished with a yield curve steadily in a optimistic sloping course for at the very least two quarters.
The one time a yield curve inversion didn’t result in a recession was in 1966, when the Fed was elevating charges to struggle inflation. On the similar time, fiscal coverage was expansionary, with the deficit-to-GDP ratio rising 3% resulting from simultaneous spending on the Nice Society applications (Medicare and Medicaid) and the Vietnam Struggle.
Nevertheless, authorities spending will increase to spice up progress are sometimes adopted by a rise in costs, as we simply noticed post-Covid. In 1967, as inflation reaccelerated, the Fed started a second sequence of fee hikes resulting in the recession and bear market of 1968 to 1970.
There are similarities right this moment. Financial coverage has been restrictive however has been offset by authorities spending with a 3% enhance within the deficit-to-GDP ratio. If the aim of Congress and the Administration is to get the price range deficit again down to three% from its present 6% to 7% degree, we might want to cut back the deficit by roughly $300 billion per 12 months over the subsequent 4 years. This may equate to a 1% drag on GDP per 12 months, which might be progress adverse within the quick time period however probably not recessionary by itself.
Whether or not the fiscal discount is finished by way of spending cuts, tax will increase, or tariffs is much less consequential than the quick math of a 1% discount in demand working by way of the financial system. This isn’t an announcement on medium-to-longer-run fiscal technique’s influence on financial progress.
Which Funding Types Maintain up — and When
Regardless of the severity of the drawdown the market does get better. Nevertheless, which types you put money into matter throughout each the drawdown and restoration intervals. In Figures 4 to eight, we current a sequence of quilt charts that recommend what buyers ought to think about proudly owning throughout and after each recessionary and non-recessionary bear markets.
It shouldn’t be a shock that in bear markets basically, extra conservative elements akin to low volatility and dividend yield outperform, and extra aggressive elements like excessive volatility and progress underperform. It additionally shouldn’t be a shock that this state of affairs is reversed throughout market recoveries.
Determine 4: Type Extra Returns: Recessionary Bear Markets High to Backside
Disclosures: Previous efficiency is not any assure of future outcomes. All of the returns within the chart above are in reference to unmanaged, hypothetical safety groupings created solely for analytical functions. These are hypothetical types primarily based on describing traits. Please see appendix for definitions and citations. Extra Return is Annualized Return over the High 1000 Portfolio.
Determine 5: Type Extra Returns: Non-Recessionary Bear Markets High to Backside
Disclosures: Previous efficiency is not any assure of future outcomes. All of the returns within the chart above are in reference to unmanaged, hypothetical safety groupings created solely for analytical functions. These are hypothetical types primarily based on describing traits. Please see appendix for definitions and citations. Extra Return is Annualized Return over the High 1000 Portfolio.
One 12 months after a recessionary bear market, the main types — except for excessive volatility — are sometimes SMID and worth. In distinction, the sample following non-recessionary bear markets is markedly completely different: progress and high quality have a tendency to steer. This makes intuitive sense, as non-recessionary bears are sometimes progress scares slightly than full financial resets, so market management doesn’t shift. These intervals sometimes align with the later phases of the financial cycle, when progress and high quality types traditionally outperform.
We restricted Determine 7 to 1 12 months after the underside of a non-recessionary bear. This was a choice produced from necessity as a result of roughly a 12 months and half to 2 years after a non-recessionary bear, the market tends to expertise a recessionary bear. One other indication that non-recessionary bears are mid cycle progress scares.
Determine 6: Type Extra Returns: 1-12 months After Recessionary Bear Markets
Disclosures: Previous efficiency is not any assure of future outcomes. All of the returns within the chart above are in reference to unmanaged, hypothetical safety groupings created solely for analytical functions. These are hypothetical types primarily based on describing traits. Please see appendix for definitions and citations. Extra Return is Annualized Return over the High 1000 Portfolio.
Determine 7: Type Extra Returns: 1-12 months After Non-Recessionary Bear Markets
Disclosures: Previous efficiency is not any assure of future outcomes. All of the returns within the chart above are in reference to unmanaged, hypothetical safety groupings created solely for analytical functions. These are hypothetical types primarily based on describing traits. Please see appendix for definitions and citations. Extra Return is Annualized Return over the High 1000 Portfolio.
Once we dove a little bit deeper into the numbers throughout the whole cycle, we observed attention-grabbing tendencies. In Determine 8, we present market cycles after recessionary bear markets. Recessionary bears comply with the financial cycle and have a distinct sample than non-recessionary bears. Unsurprisingly we see extra cyclical types akin to worth and small measurement lead within the first 12 months of a brand new bull market. Worth and small proceed to steer, although at a extra modest tempo, within the second by way of fifth years of the brand new cycle.
Then, after the cycle reaches six years, we sometimes see a shift in management to the late cycle types like progress and high quality. As progress of the broad financial system moderates after years of financial and financial impulse sometimes seen within the early cycle, progress turns into extra scarce with much less firms in a position to show progress impartial of the broad financial system. This offers high quality and progress a double barrel impact late cycle, combining higher progress charges with a number of enlargement (shortage impact).
Determine 8: Historic Hypothetical Type Returns: Recessionary Bear Market Cycles
Disclosures: Previous efficiency is not any assure of future outcomes. All of the returns within the chart above are in reference to unmanaged, hypothetical safety groupings created solely for analytical functions. These are hypothetical types primarily based on describing traits. Please see appendix for definitions and citations. Extra Return is Annualized Return over the High 1000 Portfolio.
In conclusion, if we keep away from a recession, we will count on the worst of the volatility to be over and for high quality and progress to proceed to steer primarily based on historical past. If we inevitably tip right into a recession, we probably have decrease and longer to go together with low volatility, dividends and worth traditionally serving to cut back the ache. The next rebounds from recessions have been traditionally good occasions to rebalance into the small- and mid-cap components of the market.
This publish goals to supply buyers with historic knowledge on bear markets to supply perspective and construct confidence in long-term investing. Bear markets are the worth we pay for the outstanding compounding potential of equities. By higher understanding the place we’re within the financial cycle — and what kind of bear market cycle we could also be experiencing — buyers and advisors alike can use historic patterns to handle expectations, navigate uncertainty, and place portfolios for each resilience and restoration.
Appendix & Citations
Figures 1-3: Bear Market Information Tables
- S&P 500 Index Ranges. FactSet, 2025.
- Blinder, Alan. 2023. “Landings, Delicate and Exhausting: The Federal Reserve, 1965-2022.” Journal of Financial Views—Quantity 37, #1—Winter 2023—Pages 101–120
- Federal Reserve Financial institution of New York. The Yield Curve as a Main Indicator. https://www.newyorkfed.org/analysis/capital_markets/ycfaq.html.
- Shiller, Robert J. On-line Information: U.S. Inventory Markets 1871–Current and CAPE Ratio. Yale College Division of Economics, http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/knowledge.htm.
- Nationwide Bureau of Financial Analysis. US Enterprise Cycle Expansions and Contractions. https://www.nber.org/analysis/knowledge/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions.
- US Bureau of Financial Evaluation, Actual Gross Home Product [GDPC1], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Financial institution of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/sequence/GDPC1, Could 1, 2025.
- Kelley, David. 2019. Which Main Indicators Have Accomplished Higher at Signaling Previous Recessions? Chicago Fed Letter No. 425. Federal Reserve Financial institution of Chicago. https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/425.
Figures 4–8: Quilt Charts and Market Cycles Chart
- Information Supply: Compustat
- Calculation: Hartford Fairness Modeling Platform
Type and Time Interval Definitions:
- Worth: US High 1000 Shares high 30% primarily based on Composite Worth as outlined by a number of equally weighted valuation metrics to reach at an aggregated valuation metric. Valuation metrics embody P/E, EBITDA/EV, Working Money Circulate/EV, Income/EV, and B/P Yield (used solely in financials and actual property as a alternative to EBITDA/EV), then cap weighted.
- Low Volatility: US High 1000 Shares high 30% primarily based on a Composite Volatility rating outlined by a number of equality weighted volatility metrics to reach at an aggregated volatility metric. Volatility metrics embody 3 12 months weekly Beta and 6-month day by day Std Deviation, then cap weighted.
- Excessive Volatility: US High 1000 Shares backside 30% primarily based on a Composite Volatility rating outlined by a number of equality weighted volatility metrics to reach at an aggregated volatility metric. Volatility metrics embody 3 12 months weekly Beta and 6-month day by day Std Deviation, then cap weighted.
- Dividend: US High 1000 Shares high 30% primarily based on trailing 12month dividend per share divided by present share value, then cap weighted.
- High quality: US High 1000 Shares high 30% primarily based on Gross Income to Property, then cap weighted.
- Development: US High 1000 Shares high 30% primarily based on 5 Years Gross sales Development, then cap weighted.
- SMID: US Mid-sized & Small Cap shares representing the smallest 15% and 13% of shares respectively, excluding the very smallest 2% that are categorised as microcap, then cap weighted.
- Mega/Giant: US Mega & Giant Market Cap shares with Mega representing the biggest 40% and enormous cap representing the subsequent largest 30% of the universe, then cap weighted.
- High 1000: US High 1000 Shares, cap weighted.
Interval Definitions for Market Cycles Bar Charts:
- Recessionary Bear Markets
- 12 months 1: The 12 months instantly following a bear market interval. Years 2-5: Months 13-60 following the previous bear market. 12 months 6+: The interval after month 60 till the subsequent bear market
- Bear Market: Any interval when the US Market dropped by 20% or extra with a corresponding recession
*It is very important be aware that we outlined bear markets as -19% or better declines from all-time highs, given the unusually great amount of -19% declines and shoppers rightly are as anxious to lose -19% as -20%.
