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James Picerno

U.S. Recession Risk May Be Rising, But Growth Still Prevails

How quickly and deeply will economic growth slow? That’s the critical question, but the future being the future the answer is unclear. What we do know is that headwinds are building. We also...

Can The Fed Break Inflation’s Near-Term Momentum?

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell aims to try and on Tuesday expressed confidence that the central bank will aggressively persist in its quest to resolve its biggest inflation challenge in four decades. “If that...

Peak Inflation Still Doesn’t Look Imminent

The Federal Reserve, as expected, its policy rate by 50-basis-points yesterday to a 0.75%-to-1.0% range, signaling to the market that the central bank is resolved to fight . But there’s a long...

Waiting For U.S. Economy To Cry ‘Uncle’

You can’t swing a cat without hitting a commentator discussing recession risk these days. And for good reason: there’s a growing list of potential threats to the economy. But forecasting a possible contraction...

Will Strong Labor Market Prevent A U.S. Recession?

Headwinds are building for the US economy, stoking forecasts that recession risk is rising. The labor market, however, remains resilient, suggesting that the economy will continue to expand for the near term. Private payrolls...

U.S. Financial system Seems Resilient As Headwinds Strengthen

The blowback from the conflict in Ukraine has solely simply began to rock the worldwide financial system, however the early clues for the US stay encouraging. There’s an extended highway forward and it’s...

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