The Atlanta Fed GDPNow development estimate for This autumn rises to three.2% from 3.1% after the housing begins knowledge launched earlier in the present day.
In their very own phrases:
The GDPNow mannequin estimate for actual GDP development (seasonally adjusted annual price) within the fourth quarter of 2024 is 3.2 % on December 18, up from 3.1 % on December 17. After this morning’s housing begins report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter actual residential fastened funding development elevated from 4.7 % to five.3 %.
The subsequent GDPNow replace is Friday, December 20. Please see the “Launch Dates” tab beneath for an inventory of upcoming releases.
On the finish of 2023, the Fed forecast that GDP for 2024 would sluggish to 1.4%. The expansion price has exceeeded these estimates because the economic system continued to hum alongside. In September, the Fed forecase 2025 development to come back in at 2.0%.
At present the Fed will launch their forecast for GDP, Unemployment, and PCE inflation (headline and core). They can even forecast the tip of 12 months Fed Funds guesstimate. In September they forecast a further 100 bps of cuts in 2025. The expectatation is for that forecast to be one thing much less.
