Investing.com – The US greenback has gained extra floor because the US presidential election attracts close to, UBS famous, with the market seeing rising odds of a win for Republican candidate Donald Trump.
A brand new USD-positive over the previous week has been media reviews of considerably higher outlook for Donald Trump within the newest polls, as outcomes that enable for insurance policies resembling extra aggressive tariffs are seen as extra USD optimistic.
“Greater odds of a Trump presidency are more likely to be related to a stronger USD close to time period,” mentioned analysts at UBS, in a observe dated Oct. 16.
The place does this go away us now with our USD views?
Our anticipated ranges between Sep–Dec 2024 included the potential for a fabric USD rebound between now and yr finish, even when our year-end forecasts see a modestly decrease USD from present ranges.
Final week, with a watch to our yr finish forecast, we entered an extended name reverse knockout, however we aren’t prepared to implement the same commerce but for and .
The spot remains to be far sufficient from our vary extremes and excessive JPY implied volatility and destructive carry make lengthy JPY positions unattractive so near US elections.
Turning to this week’s ECB assembly, the market may be very assured that one other 25bp charge lower might be delivered and we do not need a robust motive to disagree.
Market expectations are very muted for any type of shock, and danger reversal skews bid once more for EUR places level to a market that’s already primed for the chance of EUR softness.
With market pricing in step with our economists’ terminal charge expectations, we see EUR/USD as extra uncovered to US developments near-term, leaving us reluctant to fade current softness on ECB causes alone.
At 06:30 ET (10:30 GMT), EUR/USD rose 0.1% to 1.0894, USD/JPY gained 0.1% to 149.34 and AUD/USD fell 0.2% to 0.6685.
