Market sentiment roared higher this past week. On Wall Street, futures tracking the Nasdaq 100 soared 7.28%, the best 5-day performance since March. This is as S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures gained 6.76% and 6.39% respectively, the most since November 2020. Things were also looking good in Europe where the DAX 40 climbed 3.44%. The Hang Seng Index pushed up 2.89%.
Virtually all G10 currencies outperformed against the US Dollar, including the New Zealand Dollar, Australian Dollar, Euro, British Pound, Canadian Dollar and Japanese Yen. The DXY Dollar Index is down 1.32% over the past two weeks, the most since April 2021. What could explain this dynamic? Look no further than the Federal Reserve.
In recent weeks, we have seen the markets materially pull back 2023 Fed rate hike expectations. Cautious commentary from the central bank has been cooling chances of a 50-basis point rate hike in September. It seems traders have been shifting their focus from concerns about inflation to recession. Data since early May hints that markets are seeing the Fed increasingly fall behind on tackling CPI one year out.
This has been resulting in a broad decline in Treasury yields. The combination of this and a weaker US Dollar has also been benefiting gold prices. Now, in the week ahead, all eyes will be on non-farm payrolls on Friday. Could the markets be getting ahead of themselves? Jobs creation is expected to slow, but the unemployment rate and wages are seen to remain robust.
Outside of the world’s largest economy, the Bank of Canada is expected to deliver a 50-basis point rate hike on Wednesday. Australia releases its first-quarter GDP figures. China will also be closely watched for its May manufacturing PMI data. Softer data could amplify concerns about a slowing global economy, perhaps pressuring the Yuan. What else is in store for markets ahead?
US DOLLAR PERFORMANCE VS. CURRENCIES AND GOLD
Fundamental Forecasts:
GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: GBP Jubilation, EUR/GBP Upside Risks Remain
Back to back weekly gains for GBP/USD. EUR/GBP Eyes EU Inflation
Australian Dollar Outlook: Sways in Risk Sentiment Push and Pull AUD
The Australian Dollar has a solid fundamental backdrop for now, but external factors continue to bump the currency around. Will AUD/USD take its own path?
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Price Continues to Hold Key Support – Is a Breakout on the Cards?
Bitcoin continues to tread water above key support as JP Morgan says there is tremendous upside for the space. Is a breakout in the making?
Stock Market Outlook: S&P 500, DAX 40, FTSE 100, Nikkei 225
There was some much needed respite among the major global equity indices this past week, but that relief was likely a by-product of the liquidity drain before a holiday weekend. With growth forecasts collapsing and central banks committed to bring down inflation, further bearish retreat seems inevitable.
Gold Prices May Rise as US Recession Fears Cool the Fed’s Interest Rate Outlook
Gold prices may continue to recover in the coming days if U.S. economic data worsens and cools bets for a more aggressive Federal Reserve monetary policy outlook.
Euro Week Ahead: EUR/USD Rebound in Focus, but Total Reversal Seems Unlikely
The Euro saw its best two-week performance since January as the markets boosted ECB rate hike bets and cooled Fed tightening expectations. EUR/USD still faces multiple obstacles next.
Technical Forecasts:
S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Technical Forecast: Stock Reversal Levels
Stocks snapped a seven-week losing streak with the indices responding to key downtrend support. Levels that matter on SPX500, Nasdaq & Dow weekly technical charts.
US Dollar Eases Back from Two-Decade High, Key Levels Showing Up
The DXY Dollar Index has been on a year-long, relentless climb; but the currency seems to have taken a breather. With a retreat from 105 – or bounce from 1.0350 for EURUSD – we now find the Greenback in immediate conflict with important support levels.
