Core PCE information barely beneath expectations plus a GDP studying that shocked at +2% (keep in mind, nevertheless, that the comparability is towards 2022 Q1 which was -1.6%) within the US had been sufficient to provide a remaining enhance to US Indices – and naturally their international friends – to shut H1. The Nasdaq had its greatest H1 since 1983, up 38.71% ytd, +15.16% in Q2. $5 trillion has been added to the worth of the listed corporations, and Apple alone hit $3 trillion in valuation. The SP500 rose 6.47% in June, 8.30% in Q2, 15.91% ytd. The Dow Jones jumped 4.56% in June and is up solely 3.80% on the 12 months. Enthusiasm round synthetic intelligence and the potential of generative AI have contributed to the market’s acquire to this point in 2023. Going again to final Friday, the Treasuries didn’t behave so brilliantly and had been principally offered off with the 2-year at the moment at 4.90% and with the curve towards the 10-year at -107 bps. The USD additionally suffered towards the foremost currencies, shedding about 0.5%. The week began very effectively in Asia because of good PMI information from Caixin in China and Tankan in Japan.
This will likely be a shortened week for American buying and selling: at present Canada will observe Canada Day and the US will shut early forward of Independence Day tomorrow.
- FX – The USDIndex is up 0.07% to 102.66 after having retreated 65 cents from the highs on Friday. EUR briefly regained 1.09 and GBP 1.27, now they’re each barely shy of those ranges. AUD is weak in step with different majors (-0.20%) on the eve of the RBA IR determination tonight. Asian currencies are nonetheless weak, with CNH near 8-month lows (7.263) and JPY nonetheless on the 144 deal with.
- Shares – US Futures are primarily flat (-0.01% US30/+0.16% US100); Asia is rallying this morning: China +1.93%, HK +1.91%, Nikkei +1.50%. Goldman Sachs is in talks to dump its APPLE bank card and high-yield financial savings account merchandise to AMERICAN EXPRESS. Tesla reported 466.140 deliveries for Q2, +83% y/y
- Commodities – USOil nonetheless buying and selling near $70, Gold is stabilizing above $1.900, Silver consolidating within the $22.30-$23.00 vary, Palladium nonetheless weak, AGRICULTURALS very risky, with a really sturdy Cocoa +2.58% and fairly weak Espresso and Sugar (that’s rebounding +4.72% this morning after a -14% efficiency within the earlier 2 weeks).
Immediately – Swiss CPI, EU/UK/US Remaining Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Holidays: Canada Observes Canada Day, US Early Closure forward of Independence Day.
SUGAR, Day by day
Greatest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Sugar (+4.72%%) is rebounding to $22.90 after dropping as little as $21.78. RSI is rising from close to oversold ranges, MACD continues to be destructive. ATR 10 reveals a median motion of 83 cents per day.
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Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
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