It appeared like markets have been content material to attend on the US CPI knowledge and Fed choice subsequent week, so it positively caught me abruptly that there was fairly a modest response to the weekly preliminary jobless claims knowledge right here:
The studying was the best since October 2021 and prompted markets to pare bets of a 25 bps fee hike. The chances for that dropped from roughly 31% to 25% within the aftermath. Regardless that it could possibly be an indication that merchants are wanting extra assured that the Fed will keep pat, I’d argue that loads will nonetheless come right down to subsequent week’s inflation report.
In any case, the greenback was dealt a blow in buying and selling yesterday and the technical implications are fairly fascinating now.
EUR/USD is working its manner again in direction of 1.0800 and a break above that and its 100-day shifting common of 1.0807 will see patrons resume a extra bullish bias within the pair. In the meantime, GBP/USD is close to one-month highs above 1.2500 and if subsequent week’s principal occasions work towards the greenback, then the pair could possibly be concentrating on the Might highs of 1.2668-80 once more.
USD/JPY was additionally dragged again under 140.00 with sellers testing waters under 139.00, earlier than retaining just a bit greater immediately at round 139.30. That stated, the pair remains to be largely topic to the temper within the bond market as seen under:
USD/JPY vs US Treasury 10-year yields hourly chart
Then, we nonetheless have USD/CAD which is taking a run at key trendline assist round 1.3335 as outlined right here yesterday. After which we’re seeing AUD/USD maintain simply above its 200-day shifting common, seen at 0.6689 at the moment, after the push greater yesterday:
AUD/USD each day chart
Nonetheless, patrons nonetheless have extra work to do to assert the subsequent upside leg breakout with the 100-day shifting common (purple line) at 0.6739 nonetheless the important thing resistance degree to look at.
