For the third day in a row (forward of tomorrow’s month- and quarter-end and the massive PCE print), bonds ‘rested’ whereas shares went wild (this time up… after which again down). Gold rallied because the greenback and bitcoin offered off.
Regional financial institution shares slipped again in direction of the post-SVB lows once more, again into the purple for the week (not helped by Biden pushing for tighter regs for this cohort) forward of tonight’s Fed bailout knowledge…
FRC was weak right this moment and SCHW fell on an analyst downgrade becoming a member of PACW within the purple for the week…
Supply: Bloomberg
Minnesota Fed’s Kashkari opened his mouth round 1330ET and hawkish tones gushed forth, pushing shares decrease.
Richmond Fed’s Barkin was extra dovish at round 1400ET, hinting at credit score tightening (which can scale back wants for hikes) and that coverage has lags (hinting at a pause).
Nasdaq outperformed… once more… with Small Caps lagging (truly closing within the purple on the day). The Dow and S&P rebounded (after Barkin) again into the inexperienced on the day…
And because the quarter-end nears, it is clear what’s driving the exuberance in long-duration shares…
Nasdaq heads for one in every of its greatest quarters in a decade, up 17% in Q1. Second solely to 2022’s Q2 30% rally on the monumental financial easing throughout Covid. Each occasions, the Fed’s steadiness sheet expanded. Newest 10% leg up on the Nasdaq coincided with Fed’s steadiness sheet including $400bn pic.twitter.com/na34YcyIwr
— Valerie Tytel (@ValerieTytel) March 30, 2023
Jim Bianco nails the narrative… “all the pieces should be effective as a result of the S&p 500 is again to pre-SVB ranges?!”
1/2
Narrative constructing that the banking disaster is now over as a result of the S&P 500 has nearly retraced all its losses.
Somebody inform the financial institution shares as they’re unable to rally … pic.twitter.com/2oBMuuSrNF
— Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth (@biancoresearch) March 30, 2023
‘Most Shorted’ Shares squeezed larger on the open as soon as once more (to key resistance) however had been offered again to unch from there…
Supply: Bloomberg
Choices merchants have priced in lots of (relative) uncertainty for tomorrow (PCE), however then a jolt decrease earlier than rising once more into subsequent week’s payrolls…
Supply: Bloomberg
Treasury yields had been modestly decrease on the day with the stomach outperforming (5Y -3bps) however all yields are nonetheless up notably on the week…
Supply: Bloomberg
The 10Y yield continued to sleep after its explosion larger Friday through Monday on the again of a abruptly heavy calendar of issuance…
Supply: Bloomberg
The yield curve (2s10s) flattened for the 4th straight day…
Supply: Bloomberg
Fee-hike odds picked up hawkishly once more right this moment, with Could now at 55% odds of 25bps hike…
Supply: Bloomberg
The greenback dumped once more to its lowest shut since Feb third…
Supply: Bloomberg
Bitcoin slipped again under $28,000 right this moment (after spiking above $29 ok in a single day)..
Supply: Bloomberg
Gold (June futures) topped $2000 as soon as once more, as spot jumped again above $1980…
Supply: Bloomberg
Oil costs prolonged their features with WTI (Could is front-month) again above $74 at two-week highs…
And eventually, we observe that US equities nonetheless display screen as costly vs. the options regardless of the latest decline in Treasury yields…
Supply: Bloomberg
And the S&P 500 NTM P/E of 18x ranks within the 82nd percentile since 1980…
Supply: Bloomberg
Do you’re feeling fortunate punk?
On condition that, perhaps it’s best to!
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