Canada August retail sales +0.7% vs +0.2% expected


  • Prelim August release was +0.4%
  • Prior was -2.5% (revised to -2.2%)
  • September prelim estimate -0.5%
  • August ex autos +0.7% vs +0.4% expected — best in 5 months
  • Prior ex autos -3.1% (revised to -2.5%)
  • Sales up in 6 of 11 subsectors
  • Sales ex autos and gas +0.9%

This is one of the larger misses since Statistics Canada started releasing preliminary estimates. The revisions are also higher too. Notably though, there’s a slowdown in the September preliminary estimate and much of the increase was in food and in grocery stores, which represents inflation not activity. Sporting goods stores were also strong as kids returned to full activities following the pandemic.

On the margin, this is more likely to push the BOC towards a larger hike and maintaining a hawkish stance but it’s not as strong as the headline suggests.



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