MON: Norwegian CPI (Sep); EZ Sentix Index (Aug); Japan Holiday.
TUE: UK Jobs Report (Sep).
WED: G20 Meeting (1/2); BoK
Announcement; UK GDP (Aug); US PPI (Sep); FOMC Minutes (Sep); EIA STEO; Hong
Kong Holiday.
THU: G20 Meeting (2/2); German Final
CPI (Sep); Swedish CPI (Sep); US CPI (Sep).
FRI: Chinese Inflation (Sep); Chinese
Trade Balance (Sep); Indian Inflation (Sep); US Retail Sales (Sep); US
University of Michigan (Oct).
NOTE:
Previews are listed in day-order
UK Jobs
Report (Tue):
Expectations
are for the unemployment rate in the 3M period to August to hold steady at
3.6%, employment change to pick up to 128k from 40k and headline average weekly
earnings growth to advance to 5.8% from 5.5% (ex-bonus is forecast at 5.3% vs.
prev. 5.2%). The prior report saw an unexpected decline in the unemployment
rate to 3.6% from 3.8% (lowest since 1974) amid a notable pick-up in the number
of those classified as “inactive” as opposed to an increase in the number of
people employed. The other notable takeaway was the pick-up in wages with
annualised pay growth (ex-bonus) running at a rate of 7.0%; something which
would have been a source of concern on Threadneedle St. This time around,
analysts at Investec expect the intensification of the cost-of-living crisis
will have prompted a reversal in the trend of declining participation and the
“vast number of vacancies should have provided employment to many of these
returning to the market”. Elsewhere, on the wages front, Investec cautions that
any pick-up will be as a result of favourable base effects, as opposed to an
intensification of pay demands. In terms of recent guidance from the MPC (ahead
of the UK’s mini-budget), policymakers in September noted that there had “been
some indications that the demand for labour is weakening, although the labour
market nonetheless tightened further over the summer, with inactivity
materially higher than anticipated”.
G20 Finance
Ministers/Central Bank Heads (Tue/Wed):
Heading
into the IMF’s annual meetings, there seem to be some expectations that finance
chiefs and central bank heads will discus a coordinated response to alleviate
some of the stress seen in financial markets of late, which has seen the likes
of Japan announce interventions in FX to manage JPY weakness, and the UK’s BoE
enter the Gilt market again to arrest the surge in yields. Although the latter
likely has some domestic influences at play, both have come about amid an
aggressive Federal Reserve, which is moving to contain inflation via rate
hikes, and has sent the USD and Treasury yields higher. The FT notes that this
has given rise to hopes of a Plaza Accord II. (The original Plaza Accord was a
deal finance ministers and central banks struck in 1985 in response to a
surging USD, where co-ordinated rate rises and FX interventions followed).
While the FT says that investors should be prepared for a Plaza Accord II, it
also argues that “a reboot of the Plaza Accord is for the moment fantasy
economics,” adding that “it may remain so if the dollar weakens naturally in
tandem with growth, but the unique strengths of the US economy mean an
international party to bash the greenback is a scenario investors should
include in their planning.”
UK GDP (Wed):
Expectations
are for M/M GDP in August to be flat with the 3M/3M rate at -0.2%. The prior
report saw M/M growth of just 0.2% in July (vs. exp. 0.4%) with the UK economy
unable to benefit from a post-bank holiday rebound after the Queen’s Jubilee
marred the June release. This time around, analysts at Oxford Economics note
that “there are grounds to expect a rebound in construction output, given the
unexpected weakness of July’s outturn, but otherwise our expectations are set
low”. PMI data for August saw the composite metric slip into contractionary
territory at 49.6 (vs. 52.1 in July) with S&P Global noting that the data
was consistent with the economy contracting at a modest quarterly rate of 0.1%.
Other data points saw August retail sales decline by 1.6% with the ONS stating
that “all main sectors (food stores, non-food stores, non-store retailing and
fuel) fell over the month”. In terms of guidance from the MPC, at the time of
the September meeting, policymakers forecast negative growth of 0.1% in Q3 (vs
the August Announcement’s projection of +0.4%), marking a second successive
quarter of decline. However, the subsequent mini-budget and growth plan
presented by the government has yet to be included in the MPC’s forecasts.
FOMC Minutes
(Wed):
The FOMC
hiked rates by 75bps to 3.00-3.25% in September, in line with the consensus
expectation. The statement was largely unchanged from the July meeting, noting
that “the Committee… anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range
will be appropriate.” That left the focus on the updated economic projections,
which were judged as hawkish: officials now see rates at 4.25-4.50% by end-2022
(previously 3.25-3.50%); officials also raised their view of the terminal rate
(now see the FFR range peaking out between 4.50-4.75% in 2023 vs previous
forecast of 3.75-4.00%); after 2023, the Fed expects rates will decline to
3.25-4.00% by the end of 2024, and then fall to 2.75-3.00% in 2025; it left its
estimate of the neutral rate unchanged at 2.5%. Inflation projections were
unsurprisingly lifted, and the central bank does not expect headline PCE to be
at target before 2025; growth projections were slashed, and at least one
official sees a contraction in 2023. Chair Powell’s press conference was
underwhelming by comparison, and he revealed little by way of fresh insight,
affirming many of the points he made at the recent Jackson Hole Economic
Symposium. Powell once again caveated the dot plots, stating that it does not
represent a plan or commitment from the Fed. The Fed chief was asked about the
conditions that officials would need to see before endorsing arguments for
lower rates, and repeated that there would have to be a confidence that
inflation is moving back down to 2%. In wake of the meeting, one point analysts
picked up on is the divergence of views on the Fed over how far it needs to get
into restrictive territory, and Powell danced around that, saying the Fed has
now moved to the “very lowest” level of what it considers restrictive, saying
there is still a ways to go on rates, without giving specifics on where he sees
the terminal level, aside from his comment that the Fed would likely get to
levels in the Dot Plot. Goldman Sachs said the updated dot plot suggests that
the Fed would hike rates by 75bps again at its November meeting, followed by a
50bps rate rise in December, and then a 25bps hike in January. For 2023, GS
says that the path of rates will depend on how quickly growth, hiring and
inflation slow, and whether the FOMC will really be satisfied with a
sufficiently high level of the funds rate and willing to slow or stop
tightening while inflation is still uncomfortably high. NOTE: The Fed meeting
minutes are an account of that particular meeting, they do not factor in
commentary or developments that followed in wake of the meeting; as such, while
many desks will be keeping a close eye on them for any remarks that suggest the
Fed would be prepared to halt the course of its policy normalisation if it
triggered an unnecessary US recession or financial stability risks, the minutes
may not feature some of the more recent thinking of officials. For instance,
traders have attributed some of the recent commentary from Fed chair Brainard,
Atlanta Fed’s Bostic, San Fran Fed’s Daly, where they suggested that the Fed
was cognizant of these concerns in its policymaking (adding that they have a
domestic mandate, and fighting inflation remains the priority).
US CPI (Thu): Consumer price data for
September will have a mixed feel, analysts believe. The headline is seen rising
0.2% M/M, picking up from the prior rate of 0.1% in August, but the annual
headline is seen paring back to 8.1% Y/Y from 8.3%. A similarly mixed showing
is expected to be seen in the core measures, with the street estimating a
monthly rise of 0.5% M/M (prev. 0.6%), though the annual measure of core
inflation is likely to pick-up to 6.5%. The data will be one of the last pieces
of the puzzle officials will want to see ahead of the November 2nd FOMC, where
money markets currently price in a greater chance of another 75bps rate rise,
which would take rates to 3.75-4.00%, rather than a ‘smaller’ 50bps increment.
Amid the softer tone of some incoming data points recently (ISM manufacturing,
JOLTs data), as well as activism from some global jurisdictions (BoE for
instance, while Japan’s government has also been active in FX) on financial
stability concerns, there have been some hopes that the Fed will relent on
hawkish policy. However, commentary from Fed officials has been resolute in its
focus, with all officials generally arguing that the central bank remains fixed
on inflation, and will continue lifting rates until the fight against surging
prices has been won – even if that means tilting the US economy into a
recession.
Chinese
Inflation (Fri):
The
latest Chinese inflation data is due next week with CPI expected to increase to
2.8% from 2.5% and PPI expected to slow further to 1.0% from 2.3%. The previous
readings for August were softer than expected as the economy was hampered by a
flagging property sector and with softer demand amid China’s strict zero-COVID
policy, as well as the disruptions from power restrictions during a record
heatwave. Nonetheless, the PBoC has suggested that consumer inflation could top
the government’s target of around 3% in the latter half of the year as
structural inflation pressure may increase in the short-term and with China’s
various support measures, including the cuts in benchmark lending rates during
the second half of August, likely to provide a driving force for prices.
Conversely, factory gate prices are expected to continue to slow after rising
by the slowest pace in 18 months which China’s stats bureau attributed to a
decline in energy prices and raw materials.
Chinese
Trade Balance (Fri):
Chinese
Trade Data for September is scheduled next week where market participants will
be hoping for an improvement following the disappointing figures for August. As
a reminder all components of the release for August missed forecasts in which
the trade balance showed a narrow than expected surplus, as exports slowed to
7.1% vs. Exp. 12.8% (Prev. 18.0%) and imports also printed short of estimates
at 0.3% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 2.3%). This was due to economic activity being
mired by slowing demand, COVID restrictions and a heatwave which resulted in a
severe drought and a power shortage that prompted authorities in Sichuan and
Chongqing to impose power cuts for industrial plants and households.
Nonetheless, the power restrictions were eased in late August which provides
some optimism for the September data, while demand was also likely boosted
prior to the National Day holidays.
US Retail
Sales (Fri):
Analysts
expect US retail sales to rise +0.2% M/M in September (prev. +0.3%). While
Credit Suisse expects nominal retail sales to be flat in the month, the bank
thinks that the retail deflator will be -0.3% M/M, suggesting that real retail
sales of +0.3%, which it says would be the third consecutive month of increase
in real retail sales. “Auto spending should be a boost this month as unit
vehicle sales improved, but gasoline spending will likely drag headline
significantly as prices declined on average in September.” The consensus view expects
the ex-autos measure of retail sales is likely to be unchanged (prev. -0.3%).
“High-frequency card spending data showed a small decline in consumption in
September,” CS writes, “elevated inflation and tighter borrowing costs have led
to a steep drop in sentiment, putting a ceiling on consumption growth.” The
bank says that an earlier decline in gasoline prices may have helped boost
consumption on the margin, but overall, real goods spending is seen falling
towards trend rates through the rest of this year.”
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