The dollar is sitting in a mixed spot so far on the day, trading higher against the likes of the yen and antiopdeans but lower against the loonie, euro, and pound. The changes against commodity currencies are rather light but against the yen, the dollar is trading up to fresh highs since 1998 as pointed out here.
Meanwhile, the euro and pound are stubbornly higher on the day as both currencies are bouncing back from the Friday setback after Russia cut of gas supplies to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. EUR/USD is up 0.6% to 0.9980 levels at the moment:
The pair is keeping away from daily support near 0.9900 with buyers contesting the key hourly moving averages at 0.9973-80 at the moment. Large option expiries at 0.9995-00 are also in play, adding as an added layer to limit gains for the time being.
As much as the euro remains stubborn and not wanting to break lower, it would seem like it is just a matter of time before it actually does. I would say perhaps markets are waiting on the ECB before really chasing any bigger move but on the balance of things, so long as European fundamentals remain as they are, it is hard to bet on the euro at this point.
Any push higher would just invite shorts and once 0.9900 gives way, we could be eyeing a slippery slope for EUR/USD to the downside.
Meanwhile, GBP/USD is also finding some reprieve after hitting its lowest since March 2020:
The pair is moving back up to near 1.1600 now with near-term price action also seeing buyers push just above the 100-hour moving average at 1.1557. The 200-hour moving average stands at 1.1651 currently and will be a key resistance point to watch for sellers to drive price back to the downside.
As much as new UK prime minister, Liz Truss, has talked up a big game to bolster the economy, it’s a tall order and unless she is willing to blow things up fiscally, it is hard to imagine a turnaround in economic conditions over the coming months in the UK.
And with the BOE’s resolve set to be tested amid a floundering economy, they look set to be one of the first major central banks to fold on the tightening cycle. Meanwhile, the Fed will continue as it is for now and that sense of divergence will keep cable poised for a downside push – all else being equal.
