Conflicting opinions are not met with thoughtful, constructive replies, but rather with downvotes and nasty comments of “enjoy being in cash” or “enjoy getting demolished while I sit pretty on the sidelines”, etc. 100% without fail.
You know, I think if people were more open to discussion we’d all be better off, ironically. When I first started investing in 2021 I was skeptical, but in the end I think the people saying “you can’t time the market” had some wisdom to what they said. My portfolio is in the red, yeah, but it’s not that bad and meanwhile I’m collecting dividends. Emotionally speaking it also would have been very difficult to wait, I think. I think there’s some wisdom to “VTI and chill”. At some point watching the market go up and down every day takes a toll on you, at some point it’s probably better just to get it over with and move on with your life. You can always add more later, and people saying that buying the dip will help you get back even quicker are probably correct.
That said, I was right about a few things myself. I correctly predicted that the bull market was unsustainable and that the end of QE would be the end of the rally. I also predicted that QE and the high valuations it causes leave us very vulnerable to shocks and black swan events – ie the war in Ukraine and inflation. Some people might reply here “well duh”, but that’s not the case. I remember people vehemently denying that any of this was possible, and taking the opportunity to downvote and dunk on me whenever I brought it up.
If anyone recognizes my name, I must admit that I myself haven’t been perfect at this. But I have tried my best to keep an open mind.
Anyway, it’s not that everyone’s perspective is necessarily insightful or valid. Some people really say stupid things. Still, it seems our tendency is to always jump to the conclusion that any conflicting opinions are nonsense or garbage. I don’t think this is always the case. I think people always have a reason to believe what they do, and if we all learned a bit of humility we might be able to learn from them. I think that makes us better investors, and as cheesy as it may sound, better people, too.
I have a bad feeling that I will receive the normal hate on this post, or even that it will be removed for being off topic. That would be a shame. Ray Dalio talked about how important it is, in his experience, to share ideas and opinions with others in order to try to figure out any blind spots. And I think he’s a pretty good investor.
PS: This doesn’t just happen here, it’s unfortunately a bad human trait that is made even worse by the anonymity of the internet. Still, with money on the line it seems people tend to take things even more personally than usual.
