Ceasefire odds by April 7 are at 1% YES, down from 12% every week in the past. Talks contain the US, Iran, and mediators pushing for a 45-day ceasefire to restart negotiations.
Merchants stay skeptical. The April 7 market is sort of flat, displaying doubt about speedy progress. The April 15 and April 30 markets present slight optimism, with odds at 6% and 18% YES, respectively.
Merchants count on motion in late April or Might. Odds soar 19 factors between April 30 and Might 31, suggesting a possible catalyst.
Buying and selling quantity hit $431,402 in USDC throughout all ceasefire markets yesterday. The April 7 market’s $22,948 in USDC reveals skinny liquidity — $12,352 strikes it 5 factors. In distinction, April 30 requires $19,925 for a similar transfer, indicating extra depth.
Ceasefire talks face hurdles. Iran’s rejection of US calls for and insistence on everlasting ensures hold odds low for a fast decision. Trump’s deadline may escalate tensions. At 1¢, a YES share for April 7 pays $1 if resolved — a 100x return. Perception in a fast breakthrough inside 4 days is required.
Look ahead to last-minute modifications from Trump or intermediaries like Oman or Qatar. Trump’s ultimatum deadline is Tuesday, April 7, at 8 PM ET. Any shift in direction of “productive” or “deal” may impression odds.
Markets Impacted
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