Statistics Canada out with the non-residential capital and restore expenditures report for 2026 intentions, and the headline is a deceleration in spending progress.
Complete capex by companies, governments and establishments is predicted to rise $14.4 billion in 2026, down from the $17.4 billion improve seen in 2025. The composition issues right here although — equipment and tools spending is definitely anticipated to decline by $732 million (-0.6%), with non-residential buildings and buildings doing the heavy lifting at +$15.2 billion (+5.9%).
The story is funding in pure assets whereas conventional capex — factories, know-how — falls.
The tariff fingerprints are displaying up. Manufacturing capex fell 2.6% in 2025 to $34 billion, with preliminary estimates displaying a “marked downward revision” from intentions collected a 12 months earlier as tasks had been postponed or decreased. For 2026, anticipated reductions in transportation tools (-$1.1B) and first steel manufacturing (-$400M) — two subsectors “hit hardest by US tariffs” — are set to greater than offset a $1.3B bump in chemical manufacturing.
Eleven sectors are planning to chop capex totalling $5.0 billion vs. 9 sectors anticipating will increase totalling $19.4 billion. It is a signal that it is a two-track economic system.
The brilliant spots:
Mining, quarrying, and oil & gasoline extraction is taking a look at $65.3 billion (+6.8%) after pulling again 3.1% in 2025. Gold mining stands out with a +20% bounce in funding intentions — no shock given the place gold costs have been (gold up $43 to $5190 immediately). Transportation and warehousing ought to see the most important greenback improve at +$5.6 billion, with complete sector funding now greater than double pre-2018 ranges.
The general public sector continues to be spending however the tempo is fading quick — +5.1% anticipated in 2026 vs. +13.5% in 2025. Utilities capex is about to leap 9.7% ($4.5B) as grid reliability and electrical energy demand tasks ramp up.
Regionally, Northwest Territories leads at +14.4%, adopted by Yukon (+13.5%) and Ontario (+7.0%). Nunavut is the outlier at -20.4% after a 29.2% surge in 2025.
The takeaway for markets: It is a story of slowing momentum with tariff headwinds clearly weighing on manufacturing funding. The shift away from equipment and tools towards buildings suggests companies are cautious on enlargement however nonetheless committing to longer-term tasks. The general public sector continues to do lots of the heavy lifting right here.
The report is okay however not a ringing endorsement of enterprise confidence. I are inclined to suppose there may be some funding pleasure that is construct and the dam might break if there’s some certainty on North American commerce; one thing that ought to come later this 12 months. If/when that occurs, it might be a giant tailwind for the Canadian greenback.
USD/CAD was final down 8 pips to 1.3691 after the pair touched a one-month excessive yesterday.
