Yep, FOMO in now.
In reality, it’s possible that high growth has bottomed out. Market is pricing in less rate hikes than we previously priced. Those hikes hit high growth tremendously, and hence the rebound. The wildcard is how much a recession will hurt them, and how much of that is priced in, and whether or not that variable overwhelms the lessening of rate hikes.
See how RBLX and other high growth has put in higher lows and higher highs (trend reversal). It could always reverse again though, so it’s TBD of course.
Broader market that is less influenced by interest rates may have more pain ahead if recession causes more downward pressure.
TLDR: lower rates is fighting against lower economic expectations. Stocks more sensitive to rates than the economy will outperform if this trend continues. IMO.
Another observation: for the last several years the narrative was that the market has moved through cycles faster than in the past. Where is that narrative now? No one seems to be considering it anymore now that the market goes down. It’s possible that structurally that story remains in tact, and all the predictions for a 12-18 month bear market may be incorrect. High growth has already been in decline since early 2021. Rest of the market for 7+ months. In my view, now is the time to buy.
