Following the Fed assembly in June, the US greenback continues to face headwinds, whereas US inventory indices have hit new all-time highs. This week, market members will assessment the minutes of the Fed’s June assembly to raised assess the prospects for the US central financial institution’s financial coverage.
Moreover, within the upcoming week of 07.07.2025–13.07.2025, market members will give attention to the discharge of essential macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone, the US, China, Germany, Canada, in addition to on the outcomes of the conferences of the central banks of Australia and New Zealand.
Observe: In the course of the coming week, new occasions could also be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled occasions could also be canceled. GMT time
The article covers the next topics:
Main Takeaways
- Monday: Eurozone retail gross sales
- Tuesday: RBA rate of interest determination
- Wednesday: Chinese language client worth indices, RBNZ rate of interest determination, FOMC minutes
- Thursday: No necessary macroeconomic information releases scheduled
- Friday: German client worth indices, Canadian labor market information
- Key occasion of the week: the June FOMC assembly minutes on Wednesday
Monday, July 7
09:00 – EUR: Eurozone Retail Gross sales
Retail gross sales information is the principle measure of client spending, indicating the change in gross sales quantity. A excessive indicator consequence strengthens the euro, whereas a low one weakens it.
Earlier values: +0.1% (+2.3% YoY), -0.1% (+1.5% YoY), -0.3% (+2.3 YoY), -0.3% (+1.5% YoY), -0.2% (+1.9% YoY) in January 2025, +0.1% (+1.2% YoY) in December 2024, -0.5% (+1.9% YoY), +0.5% (+2.9% YoY), +0.2% (+0.8% YoY), +0.1% (-0.1% YoY), -0.3% (-0.3% YoY), +0.1% (+0.3% YoY), -0.5% (0% YoY), +0.8% (+0.7% YoY), -0.5% (-0.7% YoY), +0.1% (-1.0% YoY) in January 2024, -1.1% (-0.8% YoY) in December, -0.3% (-1.1% YoY) in November, +0.1% (-1.2% YoY) in October, -0.3% (-2.9% YoY) in Sept, 1.2% (-2.1% YoY) in August, -0.2% (-1.0% YoY) in July, -0.3% (-1.4% YoY) in June, 0% (-2.4% YoY) in Could, -1.2% (-2.9% YoY) in April, -0.8% (-3.3% YoY) in March, +0.3% (-2.4% YoY) in February, -2.7% (-1.8% YoY) in January, +0.8% (-2.8% YoY) in December 2022.
The info means that retail gross sales haven’t returned to pre-pandemic ranges after a extreme drop in March–April 2020, when Europe was below strict quarantine measures, and are periodically declining once more. However, values exceeding the forecast will strengthen the euro.
Tuesday, July 8
04:30 – AUD: Reserve Financial institution of Australia’s Curiosity Price Choice. RBA Accompanying Assertion
The Australian economic system’s major challenges embody sluggish wage development, a weak labor market, and a slowdown in development charges.
On the February assembly, the Reserve Financial institution of Australia determined to chop the rate of interest by 0.25% for the primary time since October 2020. Again then, charges have been on the rise, finally reaching 4.35% in November 2023. Based on the accompanying assertion, the Governing Council was cautious in regards to the prospect of additional coverage easing. Reserve Financial institution of Australia Governor Michele Bullock emphasised in her assertion that additional price cuts aren’t assured and future choices shall be pushed by financial information. Thus, the dangers of holding rates of interest excessive and even elevating them stay, offering assist for the Australian greenback.
Beforehand, Governor Michele Bullock acknowledged, “Inflation remains to be above our goal, and it is proving to be sticky.” In addition to, she talked about that inflation is “above the midpoint of the two%–3% goal vary.”
Moreover, RBA officers had beforehand hinted at the potential for implementing new tightening measures in response to any indicators of accelerating client inflation.
It’s laborious to foretell their determination this time. However, the central financial institution might increase the rate of interest once more at this assembly.
For now, it’s broadly anticipated that RBA policymakers will take a pause, holding the rate of interest at 3.85%.
Within the accompanying assertion, the RBA will clarify the explanations for the speed determination. If the RBA indicators the potential for financial easing within the close to time period, the dangers of the Australian greenback depreciating will enhance. Conversely, the hawkish rhetoric of the RBA’s accompanying assertion might result in a strengthening of the Australian greenback.
05:30 – AUD: RBA Press Convention
Michele Bullock will assess the present state of Australia’s economic system and description her division’s financial coverage plans. Market members anticipate her insights on the central financial institution’s insurance policies amid international recessionary tendencies and elevated inflation ranges in Australia.
Any indicators relating to her plans to regulate the RBA’s financial coverage parameters will trigger a volatility surge within the Australian foreign money and inventory market. If the Australian Central Financial institution Governor avoids discussing financial coverage, the market response shall be muted.
Wednesday, July 9
01:30 – CNY: Shopper Value Index (CPI)
The Nationwide Bureau of Statistics of China will launch its contemporary month-to-month information on client costs. The expansion of client costs might set off the acceleration of inflation, prompting the Individuals’s Financial institution of China to implement a tighter fiscal coverage. Larger client inflation might trigger yuan appreciation, whereas a low consequence might exert stress on the foreign money.
Since China is the world’s second-largest economic system, the publication of its vital macroeconomic information has a notable impression on the worldwide monetary markets. This affect extends notably to the yuan, different Asian currencies, the US greenback, and commodity currencies. Furthermore, China serves as the biggest purchaser of commodities and provider of a variety of completed items to the worldwide commodity market.
In Could 2025, the buyer inflation index worth stood at -0.2% (-0.1% YoY) after +0.1% (-0.1% YoY) in April, -0.2% (-0.7% YoY) in February, +0.7% (+0.5% YoY) in January 2025, -0.6% (+0.2% YoY) in November 2024, -0.3% (+0.3% YoY) in October, 0% (+0.4% YoY) in September, +0.5% (+0.5% YoY) in July 2024, -0.2% (+0.2% YoY) in June, -0.1% (+0.3% YoY) in Could, +0.1% (+0.3% YoY) in April, +0.1% (-2.7% YoY) in December 2023, -0.5% (-0.5% YoY) in November, +0.2% (0% YoY) in September, +0.3% (+0.1% YoY) in July, -0.2% (0% YoY) in June, -0.2% (0% YoY) in Could, -0.2% (+0.2% YoY).
The rise within the client inflation index will positively have an effect on the renminbi quotes, in addition to commodity currencies. Conversely, if the info is worse than forecasted and there’s a relative decline within the CPI, it could adversely have an effect on the currencies, notably the Australian greenback, provided that China is Australia’s largest commerce and financial accomplice.
02:00 – NZD: Reserve Financial institution of New Zealand’s Curiosity Price Choice. RBNZ Accompanying Assertion
Beforehand, the Reserve Financial institution of New Zealand (RBNZ) indicated that the economic system now not required the identical stage of financial stimulus. Afterward, the financial institution determined to ease the financial coverage in August 2024, decreasing the official money price by 0.25% to five.25%. Previous to this variation, the RBNZ maintained a pause for eight consecutive conferences. In October and November, the speed was lower once more by 0.50% every time. In 2025, the RBNZ continued its coverage easing cycle, decreasing the rate of interest to the present stage of three.25%.
Economists count on New Zealand’s borrowing prices to fall additional amid a sustained slowdown in inflation and a risky labor market.
The New Zealand foreign money confronted vital stress after the RBNZ opted to chop the rate of interest. The accompanying assertion revealed that the choice was made given expectations of an additional drop in inflation, which is regularly returning to the goal vary of 1.0%–3.0%. Inflation expectations have additionally decreased.
At this assembly, the RBNZ might both cut back the rate of interest once more, advocating for additional financial coverage easing, or go away the speed on the present stage. Market members monitoring the New Zealand greenback efficiency must be ready for a notable uptick in volatility throughout this time.
Within the accompanying assertion and commentary, the RBNZ officers will clarify the rate of interest determination and the financial components that influenced it.
18:00 – USD: Federal Open Market Committee Assembly Minutes
The FOMC minutes launch is extraordinarily necessary for figuring out the course of the Fed’s present coverage and the prospects for US rate of interest hikes. Volatility in monetary markets often will increase throughout the minutes’ publication, as they typically reveal modifications or present clarifications from the newest FOMC assembly.
Following the December 18, 2024, assembly, central financial institution governors determined to cut back the federal funds price by 0.25% to 4.50% and indicated a leaning in direction of additional financial coverage easing to bolster the labor market.
Nevertheless, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged {that a} pause in price cuts can be doable. He emphasised that the US Fed officers stay assured that inflation is on observe to succeed in the two.0% goal and that there is no such thing as a must rush to cut back charges given continued financial development and a strong labor market.
Following the conferences within the first half of 2025, the Fed’s rate of interest remained at 4.50%.
Many market members now assume that the Fed will keep the rate of interest unchanged at 4.50%. Furthermore, long-term forecasts counsel there could also be a gradual discount by the tip of 2025, indicating fewer changes than beforehand anticipated.
The dovish tone of the minutes will positively impression inventory indices and negatively have an effect on the US greenback. The hawkish Fed’s rhetoric on the financial coverage might increase the buck.
Thursday, July 10
There aren’t any necessary macroeconomic statistics scheduled to be launched.
Friday, July 11
06:00 – EUR: German Harmonized Index of Shopper Costs (Last Estimate)
The Harmonized Index of Shopper Costs (HICP) is revealed by the European Statistics and is calculated utilizing a technique agreed upon by all EU nations. The HICP is an indicator for measuring inflation and is utilized by the European Central Financial institution to evaluate worth stability. A optimistic index consequence strengthens the euro, whereas a unfavorable one weakens it.
Earlier values YoY: +2.1%, +2.2%, +2.3%, +2.6%, +2.8% in January 2025, +2.6%, +2.8% in December 2024, +2.4%, +2.4%, +1.8%, +2.0%, +2.6%, +2.5%, +2.8%, +2.4%, +2.3%, +2.7%, +3.1% in January 2024, +3.8% in December, +2.3% in November, +3.0% in October, +4.3% in September, +6.4% in August, +6.5% in July, +6.8% in June, +6.3% in Could, +7.6% in April, +7.8% in March, +9.3% in February, +9,2% in January, +9.6% in December, +11.3% in November, +11.6% in October, +10.9% in September, +8.8% in August, +8.5% in July, +8.2% in June, +8.7% in Could, +7.8% in April, +7.6% in March, +5.5% in February, +5.1% in January 2022.
The info signifies a slower tempo of inflation in Germany, which in flip is forcing the ECB to ease its financial coverage, particularly given the dangers of recession within the Eurozone.
Figures decrease than the earlier studying will probably have an effect on the euro negatively. Conversely, the resumption of inflation development might provoke the appreciation of the euro.
If the June information seems to be higher than earlier values, the euro might strengthen within the quick time period.
The preliminary estimate stood at +2.0%.
12:30 – CAD: Canada Unemployment Price
Statistics Canada will launch the nation’s November labor market information. Large enterprise closures as a result of coronavirus and layoffs have additionally contributed to the unemployment price, growing from the same old 5.6–5.7% to 7.8% in March and 13.7% in Could 2020.
In Could 2025, unemployment stood at 7.0% in opposition to 6.9% in April, 6.7% in March, 6.6% in February and January 2025, 6.7% in December 2024, 6.8% in November, 6.5% in October and September, 6.6% in August, 6.4% in July and June, 6.2% in Could, 6.1% in April and March, 5.8% in February, 5.7% in January 2024, 5.8% in December and November 2023, 5.7% in October, 5.5% in September, August, and July, 5.4% in June, 5.2% in Could, 5.0% in April, March, February, January, December, 5.1% in November, 5.2% in October and September, 5.4% in August, 4.9% in July and June, 5.1% in Could, 5.2% in April, 5.3% in March, 5.5% in February, 6.5% in January 2022.
If the unemployment price continues to rise, the Canadian greenback will depreciate. If the info exceeds the earlier worth, the Canadian greenback will strengthen. A lower within the unemployment price is a optimistic issue for the Canadian greenback, whereas a rise is a unfavorable issue.
Value chart of AUDUSD in actual time mode
The content material of this text displays the writer’s opinion and doesn’t essentially replicate the official place of LiteFinance dealer. The fabric revealed on this web page is supplied for informational functions solely and shouldn’t be thought of as the supply of funding recommendation for the needs of Directive 2014/65/EU.
Based on copyright legislation, this text is taken into account mental property, which features a prohibition on copying and distributing it with out consent.
